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Ronan Manly is a precious metals analyst with BullionStar whose blogs
often cover current themes including what's going on in the
London gold market and the gold activities of central banks.
Ronan Manly
3 Comments
A new report on investment silver from the LBMA is surprising in that it acknowledges the Silver Squeeze movement as having made a profound impact on silver ETF and bar and coin demand, and also startlingly admits that there were real concerns in February that London would run out of silver if ETF demand remained at an elevated level. Continue Reading 
Ronan Manly 5 Comments
Following a 10 fold increase in its gold reserves in 2018 from 3.1 tonnes to 31.5 tonnes, the Hungarian central bank has done it again, this time tripling the 31.5 tonnes to 94.5 tonnes with a recent gold buying transaction. That’s a 3000% increase since October 2018.
The motivation, say the Hungarians, is to counter the growing risks to the global system of unlimited debt,... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 5 Comments
As the multi-year saga of the ScotiaBank withdrawal from the precious metals markets continues, the latest installment finds Scotia selling its COMEX New York vault to MTB / MKS PAMP. This deal includes a transfer of all the gold and silver in the NY Scotia vault to the care of MTB.
Despite this deal, Scotia is still very much involved in precious metals, especially in London,... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 15 Comments
In an Orwellian development, US regulator the CFTC may be preparing to investigate retail traders for manipulation of the silver price.
As a reminder, this is the same CFTC that for many years and in multiple investigations, failed to find any evidence of bullion bank silver price manipulation, until that is, the DoJ’s prosecution of JP Morgan forced the CFTC to confront... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 29 Comments
The panic among silver-backed ETFs triggered by a surge in demand for silver sees no sign of abating and is entering the realm of the Twilight Zone. First we had SLV, the world’s largest silver ETF, warning that there may not be enough available silver to supply to the iShares Silver Trust.
Now we have Aberdeen Standard, operator of the SIVR silver ETF, openly panicking about... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 15 Comments
In a dramatic development, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV), has just updated its prospectus warning that there may not be enough available silver supply for delivery into SLV, and that this may adversely affect investments in SLV Shares.
Even more dramatically, this warning was drafted into the latest SLV prospectus on 3 February, the exact day after which JP Morgan tapped... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 21 Comments
While many eyes were on the mammoth iShares Silver Trust (SLV) last week, that is only part of the picture, as there are 14 other silver-backed ETFs which claim to store their silver in London.
Between them SLV and these other ETFs hold over 85% of all the silver in the LBMA London vaults. Which means that a few more days of very strong inflows into silver ETFs will create a... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 10 Comments
In unprecedented fashion, a #SilverSqueeze movement has rapidly grown to take on the financial establishment in the 'paper' silver markets of London and New York.
But if it is to have any chance of success, this #SilverSqueeze movement must attack the Achilles heel of the bullion banks. That Achilles heel is the availability of physical silver. Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 1 Comments
With the rapid proliferation of crypto exchanges and decentralized finance on the blockchain, it’s hard to believe that the first Bitcoin exchanges didn’t even exist less than 12 years ago.
From New Liberty Standard to Bitcoin Market to Mt. Gox, this article uses website archives to take a look back at the pioneering exchanges of 2009-2011, their founders and connections... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 10 Comments
While the world is fixated with nominal price changes in gold and silver, it is real (inflation-adjusted) prices of the two metals which are arguably more important.
Even when using the rigged CPI data of the US Government, nominal gold and silver prices in US dollars are currently far below their real (inflation-adjusted) all time highs.
But when using the more... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 2 Comments
According to the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), there are now record gold stocks of 9450 tonnes held in the London vaults.
While trumpeting record gold holdings may grab headlines, it’s a misleading claim if, as appears to be the case, only a tiny fraction of these total gold holdings are available to ‘back-up’ the gigantic fractionally-backed LBMA paper gold... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 0 Comments
2020 was a remarkably strong year for gold and silver bullion coins sales by the US Mint, Perth Mint and Royal Canadian Mint.
Gold sales increased by a massive 500% at the US Mint and more than doubled at the Perth Mint and Royal Canadian Mint. Silver sales doubled at the US Mint while the Perth Mint boosted silver sales by 42%. Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 1 Comments
Both gold and silver put in very strong performances in 2020, with the gold price in US dollars rising by over 25%, gold’s best annual return since 2010. The silver price rise in US dollars was even more impressive in 2020, ending the year nearly 48% higher, also silver’s best performance since 2010.
With Bitcoin’s price rise again in the headlines, some may ask why gold... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 7 Comments
As the latest SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) annual 10-K statement hits the tape, there are a number of troubling developments which should concern the SEC and GLD investors alike. These include:
Why the GLD Sponsor CFO resigned on 29 September 2020, one day before financial year end of 30 September.
Why the latest GLD 10-K withholds data on how much gold the GLD held at the... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 10 Comments
In a startling overstep of its remit, the bullion bank consortium, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), under cover of the OECD and a group of NGOs, has just launched a campaign against the independence of gold trading centres around the world, threatening to blacklist any market which fails to follow an LBMA set of recommendations about gold sourcing.
The attack is... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 0 Comments
If the US presidential election is contested, appealed, and its outcome challenged, this will create near term market uncertainty, volatility and unrest. But whoever the victor, Fed QE and US government stimulus spending will continue, amid the associated destruction of the dollar and economy. All of which is gold price positive. Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 4 Comments
A recent gold related article from newspaper ‘The Telegraph’ revisited the infamous United Kingdom gold sales of 1999 which were conducted under Chancellor of the Exchequer at the time Gordon Brown.
This article prompted Robert Pringle, founder of Central Banking Publications, first executive director of the Group of 30, and former head of World Gold Council's public policy... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 4 Comments
Since 2014, there have been a staggering six Chief Financial Officers in charge of accounting at the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, the famous NYSE listed SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).
Specialists in recruitment, sell-side analysts, and human resources academics all agree that high CFO turnover is something that raises red flags in corporate environments. It is also something... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 15 Comments
In January 2013, Germany’s Bundesbank announced that the deadline for its substantial gold repatriation plan was the year 2020. Two years later in 2015, the Austrian central bank in a similar move said that it too had a 2020 deadline for its gold repatriation operation.
Were these central banks inadvertently revealing that 2020 would usher in a monetary reset? Fast forward to... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 10 Comments
Another month, another US court case involving precious metals traders from the big banks being prosecuted for manipulating gold and silver prices.
This time it is traders from Germany’s Deutsche Bank being prosecuted by the US DoJ. But one important point that the media has missed is that one of these traders was a director of the critically important London Gold and Silver... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 2 Comments
Claiming a sudden need for increased transparency, the Bank of England and LBMA in London have now moved from reporting gold and silver vault inventories on a 3 month lagged basis to a 1 month lagged basis.
However, there is more to this move than meets the eye, and the change looks to be part of a regulatory concession before rolling out COMEX contract delivery using metal... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 9 Comments
A few weeks ago, in a very stealthy manner, CME Group in coordination with the LBMA, massively expanded the lists of approved gold and silver bar brands that can be delivered against the flagship COMEX GC 100 gold and SI silver contracts.
While this signals gold and silver bar delivery constraints at the COMEX, that is only half the story, as the real intention of these changes... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 15 Comments
The latest SEC filing by the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) released this week contains the bombshell detail that the world’s largest gold-backed ETF is increasingly resorting to sourcing gold bars at the Bank of England. At least 70 tonnes of gold and possibly up to 150 tonnes.
With GLD and its custodian HSBC resorting to such tactics and interfacing with the murky world of central... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 2 Comments
After rising rapidly to the $2070 range, the US dollar gold price has now corrected sharply . What took nearly 2 weeks to go up, has now unwound in a matter of 3-4 days. But sometimes this is the nature of corrections, sharp and extreme.
Corrections are healthy and form stronger support. Markets never continually move in one direction. Over 12 years ago, famous gold guru Jim... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 7 Comments
In what is a memorable week for gold and silver prices, the US dollar price of gold is approaching an all time high, while the price of silver has surged this week by over 18%.
The current price action in gold and silver is igniting investment interest in everything from gold and silver mining shares to precious metals ETFs, while in the physical bullion markets, savers and... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 0 Comments
Zing News, one of Vietnam’s leading news and media platforms, this week published an article examining the reasons behind the strong upward move in the gold price and its sustainability, quoting extensively from BullionStar's input.
In Vietnam, which has a very strong tradition of gold ownership and use of physical gold in transactions, the Zing News digital newspaper has... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 2 Comments
Triggered by a COMEX-Spot spread blow out in the wake of a delivery failure in gold Exchange for Physical (EFP) transactions, an unprecedented 730 tonnes of gold has flowed into COMEX gold vaults between 24 March and 30 June, mostly into the vaults of JP Morgan and Brink's.
The chain of events can be traced back to the LBMA rush on 24 March to “facilitate physical delivery of... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 2 Comments
As a former Banque de France central banker joins the board of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) as an “Independent” director, replacing a former New York Federal Reserve central banker who also served on the same board as an “Independent” director, we must ask ourselves why have these central bankers so much interest in gold and the LBMA.
Particularly as the... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 9 Comments
The unprecedented shock which London and New York gold markets experienced beginning 23-24 March left a lot of fallout in its wake, from bullion banks scrambling to secure physical gold to send to New York, to deteriorating liquidity in both the COMEX and London markets.
Yet three months on from the detonation whose blast waves were felt on both sides of the Atlantic, the... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 5 Comments
There is something broken in the London gold market and the evidence points back to HSBC, both in physical and paper gold. During April, HSBC began turning to the Bank of England gold vaults to source at least 45 tonnes of gold for the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). Did HSBC run out of gold in its own secretive London vault?
Now it emerges that... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 11 Comments
While media focus has recently been on the current gold price dislocation between London spot and COMEX New York futures, there is another persistently large discount that so far has evaded the spotlight. That is the twice daily LBMA Gold Price benchmark.
By ignoring the much higher COMEX gold futures prices while setting the LBMA Gold Price auction starting price, the auction... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 1 Comments
The US Mint has just implemented an indefinite shutdown to its West Point Mint facility due to a surge in coronavirus cases in Orange County New York where the West Point Mint is located.
As the only production facility for the famous American gold Eagles and American gold Buffalo bullion coins, the West Point shutdown puts a further strain on an already constrained supply... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 10 Comments
A newly discovered document from COMEX operator CME to the CFTC contains a full-scale admission that much of the ‘eligible gold inventory’ in COMEX New York vaults is held by long-term holders and cannot be included in deliverable supply.
The COMEX concedes that eligible gold should therefore have a 50% haircut applied. With this bombshell admission, it means there is far... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 5 Comments
As the saga of the large price differential continues to persist between COMEX gold futures prices and London gold spot prices, it is obvious that all is not well with the bullion banks in the paper gold markets.
And this is despite statements galore from the LBMA and COMEX and the launch of a new gold futures contract. The underlying problem seems to be the LBMA gold market... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 1 Comments
In the space of a week, the bullion bank dominated LBMA and CME(COMEX) in an air of panic, have issued not one, but two rushed out statements to try to placate the global gold market.
In the modern gold market this is unprecedented. While LBMA-CME claim that physical gold stocks in London and New York are at healthy levels, the reality is far more concerning. Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 8 Comments
As the LBMA and CME scramble to keep the paper gold show on the road and monopolise gold price discovery, they have now launched a new gold futures contract which is deliverable using 400 oz gold bars.
But according to the COMEX gold vault inventory report, there are no 400 oz gold bars in any of the COMEX approved vaults in New York. Is this yet again a giant smokescreen by... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 6 Comments
With extreme demand and supply shortages in the physical gold market, it was only a matter of time before the paper gold markets in London and New York would come under strain. That time is now.
With the spot price of gold lagging the price of COMEX gold futures for the third day running, the LBMA is now colluding with the COMEX on bailing out bullion banks. But who is bailing... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 4 Comments
Unprecedented demand for physical precious metals. Unprecedented supply chain delays in the precious metals supply chain. Real and present disconnects between the physical gold price and the prices set by COMEX/LBMA.
In theory you would think that this is all great material for reporters covering the latest developments in the physical gold market in Asia. Maybe for some, but... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 4 Comments
The turmoil engulfing financial markets is unprecedented in its breath and intensity. You might call it a perfect storm. In such an environment, no asset class has been immune. But will gold be the last man standing? Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 21 Comments
As global stock markets reeled last week on continued newsflow around the coronavirus, the US dollar gold price made a seven-year high early in the week, only to fall sharply on Friday.
But with this ‘gold price’ derived on the COMEX gold futures market, it is detached from the reality of the current strong demand that BullionStar is seeing for physical gold. Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 2 Comments
From quarantined cities to lower consumer demand, from reduced flight traffic to closed frontiers and boarders, the economic shock to the domestic Chinese gold market caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus should not be underestimated.
While we can't examine much live data from the Chinese gold market right now, we can review Chinese gold market activity up to the end of... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 9 Comments
In a brazen attack on precious metals and economic freedom, the German government has just introduced draconian new rules on buying precious metals.
Brought in with zero evidence under the guise of money laundering prevention, short term it created panic gold buying by Germany’s population but long term it's a continuation of the all too familiar statist war against gold and... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 11 Comments
This week the LBMA in London claims that a record 8,228 tonnes of gold is held in the London vaults, vaults which include those at the Bank of England and the commercial vaults of such bullion banks as JP Morgan and HSBC.
But beyond the headline figure, how much of this gold is available to underpin the gargantuan daily trading volumes of the London gold market? Very little as... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 5 Comments
In a quantum leap for an investment bank to make, Dutch bank ABN AMRO has just gone on record questioning if a world with two gold prices would be better, one price that would reflect trading of real physical gold, and the other which would represent paper and synthetic gold products.
Although a welcome step from the Dutch bank, it fails to acknowledge the structural forces... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 2 Comments
Gold is and always has been universal money that can be used anywhere and is accepted everywhere. The world’s elite military detachments know this, which is why they issue their troops and pilots with gold coins and other gold bullion items for use as emergency money when they go behind enemy lines. Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 0 Comments
The Polish central bank has just succeeded in extracting 100 tonnes of its gold from the Bank of England in London, and this gold now rests safely back in Warsaw in the vaults of the National Bank of Poland.
Moving 100 tonnes of gold - 8000 central bank gold bars - Poland’s gold repatriation operation involved top secret motorcades, elite police escorts, jumbo jet air... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 2 Comments
Ever been confused between the COMEX ‘registered’ and ‘eligible’ gold categories on the COMEX New York gold vault reports? You wouldn’t be the first. But now the CME has made it even more complex by introducing a new ‘pledged gold’ category representing COMEX registered gold that has been used as collateral.
But with pledged gold unable to be used for gold futures... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 0 Comments
After announcing gold reserve purchases for ten straight months between December 2018 and September 2019, the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has now paused gold buying for October, at least according to latest figures.
But what to make of Chinese official gold buying communication in general? It’s instructive to look at China’s stop-start gold... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 6 Comments
History is replete with examples of gold being the ultimate asset in times of crisis and emergency, where time and time again, gold comes to the rescue and provides its holders with choice and freedom.
These crisis situations range from fiat currencies collapses, to gold buying safe passage across international borders, from periods in which gold can rescue an entire nation, to... Continue Reading
Ronan Manly 4 Comments
In a development whose impact is still unclear, the world’s largest gold derivatives trading venue, the US COMEX, and the world’s largest physical gold trading exchange, the Chinese SGE, have just jointly launched gold derivatives contracts, potentially binding each other into a price feedback loop.
Could this be a case of the massively influential COMEX gold trading now... Continue Reading
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