Strong Withdrawals Mainland & Hong Kong Gold Vaults - Koos Jansen
- 21 Jun 2015 20:38
- Koos Jansen
From June 8 – 12 withdrawals from SGE certified vaults in China mainland and CME Kilobar vaults in Hong Kong accounted 76 for tonnes.
Withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI) came in elevated for this time a year at 46 tonnes in week 23 (June 8 – 12), up 41 % from the previous week.
Year to date a staggering 1,061 tonnes have been withdrawn, up 20 % y/y (2014), up 7 % y/y from 2013.
SGE withdrawals have lost their accuracy since the launch of the SGEI in September 2014 – withdrawals in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (SGEI) can distort Chinese wholesale demand measured by SGE withdrawals (SGE withdrawals disclosed in the weekly reports capture both SGE and SGEI withdrawals). From numbers available in 2014 we knew that not much of SGEI trading was withdrawn by foreign SGEI members; most of the withdrawals in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone were imported into the mainland by SGE members.
For more information please read The Mechanics Of The Chinese Domestic Gold Market, Chinese Gold Trading Rules And Financing Deals Explained, The Workings Of The Shanghai International Gold Exchange and SGE withdrawals in perspective.
At this stage total SGE withdrawals, as disclosed by the weekly SGE reports, are difficult to analyze as we didn’t get any hints lately from the Chinese as to what is composition of the demand side of withdrawals, how much are SGEI withdrawals that are not imported into the mainland, and what is the composition of the supply side, how much gold is imported into the mainland and/or recycled to supply SGE withdrawals. Technically, all trades (volume) on the SGEI can be withdrawn and exported to, for example, India. This is not likely, but we don’t know. Attempts from my side to obtain the latest data regarding SGEI withdrawals have resulted in little intelligence.
In week 23 (June 8 -12) total SGEI volume was 35 tonnes; international gold trading in renminbi slowly comes to life.
The iAu99.99 contract is traded on the SGEI; Au99.95, Au99.99 and Au(T+D) are traded on the SGE.
Hong Kong Kilobar Withdrawals
In March 2015 the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched a gold kilobar futures contract, which can be physically delivered in Hong Kong. The contract can be traded over exchanges (CME Globex, CME ClearPort, CME Direct, New York open outcry) and in the Over The Counter (OTC) market.
The kilobar volume over exchanges is insignificant and I’m not aware if any delivery is made from these trades. However, if we look at the physical gold throughput of the Hong Kong vaults, we must conclude this contract is a popular trade in the OTC market. This has been confirmed to me by a CME representative. Note, withdrawals from the Hong Kong vaults transcend the volume disclosed by the Merc, so the physical settlements must happen in the OTC market.
I would like to emphasize kilobar withdrawals do not have the same significance as SGE withdrawals. The mechanics of the gold market in Hong Kong are completely different from the market in the mainland. Hong Kong has been a trade hub for centuries; gold is imported and exported in vast amounts. Kilobar withdrawals do not reflect gold demand; it does illustrate how much is going through the Chinese Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong).
In week 23 kilobar withdrawals in Hong Kong accounted for 30 tonnes. On June 8 a record 16.61 tonnes in 9999 kilobar gold was withdrawn from the Brink’s vault in Hong Kong.