Koos Jansen
BullionStar Blogs
Koos Jansen
Posted on 24 Nov 2015 by

Switzerland Gold Export China October 29t, +34% m/m

First, withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), our best measure for Chinese wholesale gold demand, accounted for 49 tonnes in week 44 (9 – 13 November), up 9 % from the previous week. Year to date SGE withdrawals have reached 2,259 tonnes, which is already more than any previous yearly total.

Shanghai Gold Exchange SGE withdrawals delivery 2015 week 44

Seasonally, SGE withdrawals are the highest around new year, therefore I expect them to increase from current levels before the end of 2015 – perhaps transcending 60 tonnes a week. Chinese people traditionally exchange gifts during new year and lunar year, often in the form of gold.

As SGE vaults have likely been depleted from July until September – after the crash in the Chinese stock market withdrawals skyrocketed – I don’t expect Chinese gold imports will decline until the January 2016. Year to date China has net imported 1,058 tonnes, according to lagging data released by various customs departments around the world.

The most recent data from Swiss customs points out there were 29 tonnes of gold shipped directly to China mainland in October, up 34 % m/m. Year to date (Jan – Oct) Switzerland has net exported 217 tonnes directly to China.

Switzerland China gold trade 2012 - oct 2015

A couple of years ago all net gold export from the UK (a large supplier of gold to the East) to China flowed via Switzerland or Hong Kong. Because the UK has started to export gold directly to China since 2014, Swiss gold exports to China have been somewhat decreasing.

Year to date (Jan – Sep) Hong Kong has net exported 582 tonnes directly to China.

Year to date (Jan – Sep) the UK has net exported 210 tonnes directly to China.

Year to date (Jan – July) Australia has net exported 49 tonnes directly to China.

Koos Jansen
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  • Anasteus

    God bless you, Koos, for your outstanding work.

  • Long John Dickweed

    In an older post of your you mentioned finding statistics on direct gold exports to China from some countries was proving difficult. It looks like you have data for some major producers (Australia, USA) and also financial/refining centers (Hong Kong, Switzerland, UK).

    Find anything interesting on direct exports from other major gold producers? I’m talking South Africa, Canada, Russia, Peru, Mexico, Uzbekistan, Ghana, Columbia, Brazil, Argentina, Indonnesia, Papua New Guinea.

    Some of those counties production will no doubt end up in the UK, US and Switzerland but definitely not all of it. Chinese foregin investment in the mining sector is also sizeable in some of those countries.

    Also it may be worth investigating Singapore to China gold exports, and to a lesser extent United Arab Emirates (Dubai) to China numbers.

    As you point out, these things change quickly, the favored Hong Kong –> China barometer has already lost a lot of its usefulness in less than 2 years.

    Good work.

    • JanNieuwenhuijs

      I’m busy – for very long – on UAE, Singapore and South Africa.

      The others are less interesting (although I just saw that Canada did its first batch at 2 tonnes sin June).

      • Big_Shiny_Au_Nuggets

        Jan, I am based in Dubai. Please let me know if you need someone to do some legwork on the ground here to assist with UAE. I would gladly assist.

        • JanNieuwenhuijs

          Yes! I’ve been trying for ages to get to the UAE data. Maybe I will succeed maybe not.
          I’ve you can try to make contact with the Bureau of statistics that would be great! They must hand over the data.

          • Big_Shiny_Au_Nuggets

            Unfortunately your/ my expectation of what a government body “must” do in response to a legitimate request for information is unlikely to align with the expectation of said gov. body for transparency.

            That said, I know a local PMs dealer here and I will seek some guidance from him.

            Give me a few days and I will come back to you to share some feedback.

            Do you have an email address you share with me for this purpose or shall we communicate here?

          • JanNieuwenhuijs

            Yessir. koos.jansen@bullionstar.com .

            Let’s keep on digging and build a global army of intelligence.

          • Big_Shiny_Au_Nuggets

            Hi Jan. Sorry that I have not been back to you on this… I have been more focussed upon the return of my stolen gold and silver in this ‘gold.ae’ fraud that has been committed here in Dubai (and beyond). Do a basic search on Google. There are several zergohedge articles, some limited press and now also a Facebook page setup by a victims group to seek legal recourse in this criminal activity.

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