Koos Jansen
BullionStar Blogs
Koos Jansen
Posted on 20 Dec 2013 by

SGE Physical Delivery 2073 Tons YTD, 50 Tons From 9-13 December

The amount of gold withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults has been increasing in recent weeks. After an explosive week in April, when 117 tons of gold were withdrawn, weekly averages came down to a constant 40 tons throughout the year. At the end of October it seemed Chinese demand for physical gold was declining, but since  November weekly physical delivery has been north of 40 tons. In between 9 and 13 December 50.4 tons of gold were withdrawn from the vaults. Year to date 2073 tons have been withdrawn, which equals to Chinese gold demand according to the PBOC.

Premiums in Shanghai have remained around 1 % over international spot in recent weeks.

USGS estimated total world mining production would be 2700 tons this years, but this estimate was made before the price collapsed in April. After the price drop numerous mines were shut down and thus total world mining production will be far lower than what was expected in January. It could very well be that SGE physical delivery in week 50, which was 50.4 tons, surpassed global mining production, which was estimated at 54.9 tons, but we can only be sure about this when we have the official mining data at year end.


Overview Shanghai Gold Exchange data week 50

– 50 metric tonnes delivered in week 50 (withdrawn from the SGE vaults), 09-12-2013/13-12-2013
– w/w  + 13.8 %
– 2073 metric tonnes delivered year to date
– weekly average 41.46 tonnes YTD, 2013 estimate yearly total 2156 tonnes.


For more information on SGE delivery read thisthisthis and this.

Shanghai Gold Exchange gold withdrawn from vault week 50, 2013

Screen dump from SGE trade report; the second number from the left (本周交割量) is weekly physical delivery, the second number from the right (累计交割量) is total delivery YTD.

Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals from vault week 50

Gold premiums on the SGE based on data from the weekly reports. Difference between SGE gold price in yuan and international gold price in yuan.

SGE premiums week 50, 2013 

Below is a screen dump of the premium section of the SGE weekly report; the first column is the date, the third is the international gold price in yuan, the fourth is the SGE price in yuan, and the last is the difference.

SGE premiums week 50

In Gold We Trust

SGE foreign exchange gold system

Koos Jansen
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  • Peter Trzaska

    Nice work! And to think, there are still some out there who believe this is all just random, unforeseeable consequences….not at all predetermined, planned and executed by those who run the show…. Ha…sure…and pigs can fly. lcn.freedgold.com/

  • 24 carat

    Look at the flat Shanghai stock exchange index ! The surplus producing Chinese don’t chase the momentum-playing financial industry (hot money). They go for value investment in gold (cold money).

  • Gutekunst

    Congratulation, very good work. One of the few blogs which delivers valuable information.

    • In Gold We Trust


  • Sam L

    Great work!!
    When do we see end to price manipulation? It can’t go on forever, just one country buying all gold produced in the world.

    • In Gold We Trust

      Nobody knows. But I think 2 years max

  • Matt

    World gold mining production won’t be lower this year than 2012, it will be higher – I’m pretty sure about that.

    • In Gold We Trust

      Please explain

      • Matt

        Not sure how else to put it. WGC data, e.g, has mine output of 2,933t in 12 months to end-Sep 2013, which compares to 2,844t in the same period of 2011/2013. Output in Q3 2013 was a record. To beat 2012 output Q4 only has to be relatively low. There’s quite a few new mines have opened.

        • In Gold We Trust

          Thats weird, the price drops by 25 % and people start opening new mines…

          • wazsah

            There is surely a fair bit of inertia around the opening of new mines. While the price crashes of 2013 might have closed some marginal and tired mines – new mines are a different set of numbers and aspirations.

          • Matt

            Not really that weird. It takes 2-3 years to physically open a new mine (sometimes longer) so these decisions were made in 2010-2011 when gold was much higher. Also miners like to keep revenue in dollars up so they are using various techniques to produce more gold.

  • unwired

    Hey Koos,
    Appreciate your detailed work. Question. Should the delivery numbers on the SGE start to drop again…. that is often referred to as declining demand. How would we know its not actually declining supply? Gold from western sources is not endless… and there is credible evidence supply may begin to dry up. How could we possibly expect SGE deliveries to stay this high in a low price environment if there is little left to import? Seems to me….at some point we should deliveries drop off until the price recovers. The only way to coax that last bit of western gold out of weak hands would be to see a dramatic increase after this counter intuitive 2013.

    • In Gold We Trust

      GOFO is negative again, that says something of the supply side. Furthermore, we will see how long the price can stay this low..

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