Koos Jansen
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Koos Jansen
Posted on 15 Nov 2014 by

Who’s Feeding China’s Gold Hunger?

As Chinese wholesale gold demand, measured by withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange, has been strong over the first three quarters of this year we will have a close look in this post at how this demand was supplied. Total Chinese wholesale demand Q1 to Q3 2014 was 1,453 tonnes, down 13 % y/y. In comparison, the World Gold Council (WGC) states Chinese consumer demand in the first three quarters was 638 tonnes, which is not even half of SGE withdrawals – more about this difference in a future post.

SGE withdrawals Q3 2014
Green (累计交割量) is the YTD total including Q3.

Domestic mine supply is a certainty in China, this year 451 tonnes will be mined domestically (37.6 tonnes a month), which leaves import and scrap to fill the gap.

In 2013 most supply of total Chinese wholesale demand was originally sourced form the UK – the London Bullion Market, transferred through Switzerland and Hong Kong, eventually reaching China mainland. The bulk of Chinese import in 2013 came in through Hong Kong.

This year the Chinese have started to import more gold directly into the mainland, circumventing Hong Kong. Unfortunately China itself doesn’t publish gold trade data – as they prefer to keep the world uninformed about their gold hunger not to influence the price. China openly changed import policy in April (from 1:14):

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TYSLZJqF4I]
China’s shift in import policy has been made possible as China developed it’s refining capacity significantly in recent years, hence not all gold across the globe that is headed for the Chinese market has to go through Switzerland. Additionally the Shanghai Free Trade Zone will take over Hong Kong’s transit point. The result being, this year it’s harder to track gold import into China as all countries around the world can ship directly to the mainland.

Based on my basic equation for Chinese gold import (Import = SGE withdrawals – scrap – mine) I was able to make an accurate prediction for Chinese gold import for 2013. In March 2014 I said in a interview it was 1,500 tonnes, a few months later the China Gold Association confirmed it was a little over 1,500 tonnes.

Chnese gold supply import mine scrap 2013 2012 CGA
Source: the China Gold Association (CGA).

17 tonnes of doré was imported from overseas mines in 2013 and 428 tonnes domestically mined, total Chinese mined gold was 445.417 tonnes; Scrap supply was 246.923 tonnes; 1506.5 tonnes of bullion was imported by commercial banks; total Chinese gold supply (and demand) was 2198.840 tonnes

Although I don’t think I’m able  to make such an accurate prediction ever again, my basic equation has proved to be a legitimate tool for estimating gold import. Putting it to use, China should have imported 936 tonnes in the first three quarters of this year.

This would imply SGE withdrawals (1453 tonnes) were supplied by:

  • 936 tonnes import
  • 179 tonnes scrap
  • 338 tonnes mine

To trace the imported 936 tonnes, let’s run through the customs data of the world’s largest trading hubs, countries that additionally have large amounts of gold stocks; Hong Kong, the UK, Switzerland and the US.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong net exported 566 tonnes to China year to date, down 34 % y/y.

Hong Kong - China gold trade 9-2014

As SGE withdrawals have shown a rebound since September, Hong Kong net export to China increased concurrently.

SGE withdrawals vs COMEX delivery monthly

In September Hong Kong net exported 69 tonnes to China mainland.

Hong Kong - China gold trade monthly January 2009 - September 2014

(Looking beyond September SGE withdrawals have increased even more. Seasonally Chinese gold demand is at its peak in December and January.)

Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals 2014 week 44, dips

China changed it’s import strategy in April, until April most gold destined for the Chinese market – and more – was transferred to Hong Kong to be re-exported to China or stored in transit. In the next chart we can see hundreds of tonnes of gold were not only transferred through Hong Kong since 2013, but also remained in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong gold trade September 2014
This year the largest net exporters to Hong Kong were Australia (112t), Canada (31t), Switzerland (253t), the UK (66), Japan (26t), the Philippines (43t), Thailand (31t), the US (75t), South Africa (75t).

Hong Kong remains an important transit point for the coming months, as I wrote in Hong Kong Is The Key In Global Gold Trade, For Now (June 2014). From Koos Jansen:

In 2013, the year Chinese demand for physical gold exploded, Hong Kong gross gold import was 2239 metric tonnes. The bulk of this was exported to China mainland (net 1158 tonnes), but a staggering 597 tonnes was left behind. Hong Kong is inhabited by 7 million people who couldn’t have bought 597 tonnes of gold in one year. According to my analysis most of Hong Kong’s net import is floating supply that was shipped to the East by the bullion banks, pending for a bid in Asia, likely from China.

…It will be interesting when Hong Kong becomes a net exporter.

In June I was speculating there are still hundreds of tonnes of floating supply in Hong Kong available for China to import. When Hong Kong becomes a net exporter we will experience more of the globe’s finite floating supply is being sucked into China’s black hole, not to return in the foreseeable future. This is exactly what is happing at the moment; Hong Kong turned from net importer to net exporter in Q3 2014. The next chart will be crucial in coming months/years.

Hong Kong monthly gold trade January 2013 - September 2014

In August Hong Kong net exported 820 Kg, in September 14.16 tonnes. I expect, based on strong SGE withdrawals in October and November, to see future Hong Kong net export to China to be strong and Hong Kong to continue to be a net exporter.

The UK

In 2013 the main source of gold for China was the UK, home of the London Bullion Market. The UK net exported 1424 tonnes in 2013, which took a large bite out of London’s floating supply. How much there is left remains to be seen.

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yewuiAJyJco]
The UK has net exported 64 tonnes to China year to date. We can clearly see the UK started exporting directly to China in April.

UK - China Gold Trade 2012 - September 2014

The UK has net exported 418 tonnes YTD to Switzerland.

UK Gold Trade 2012 - September 2014

According to Eurostat no other European nation has exported gold directly to China in 2014.

Screen Shot 2014-11-14 at 6.45.32 PM


How much Switzerland directly exported to China in 2013 we don’t know, at the time the Swiss only disclosed total gold import and export data (we do know from Hong Kong’s trade data Switzerland net exported 913 tonnes to Hong Kong in 2013, YTD 253 tonnes). Luckily, Switzerland discloses gold trade data country specific since 2014. In the first three quarters of this year Switzerland net exported 110 tonnes of gold to China. 

Switzerland China gold trade Q3 2014

The United States

I checked with multiple sources, but the US officially doesn’t export much gold directly to China, only 3 tonnes YTD.


ROW is short for the Rest Of the World.

Hong Kong, the UK, Switzerland and the US have net exported 743 tonnes in the first three quarters to China. My estimate for Chinese import YTD was 936 tonnes, so were did the other 193 tonnes came from?

From the countries I just reported on I have free access to their gold trade data . For many other countries this service is not free or hard to access through the country’s own customs database. However, by searching the net we can collect more information on how much gold was directly sent to China. For example from Australia.

According to GTIS Australia net exported 173 tonnes of gold in 2013 to China (Bron Suchecki noted The Perth Mint exported 225 tonnes to China in 2013 in this post’s comment section). Clearly Australia is a significant gold exporter to China.

According to COMTRADE Australia net exported 72 tonnes to China from January until May. If we make an estimate how much was exported YTD, this could have been well over 100 tonnes.  Let’s be conservative and estimate Australia has exported 110 tonnes in Q1 – Q3 to supply the SGE.

UPDATE 01-16-2015: COMTRADE data leads to double counting, read this post for more information.

Hong Kong, the UK, Switzerland, the US and Australia net exported  (566 + 64 + 110 + 3 + 110) 853 tonnes to China. This leaves a gap of 83 tonnes (936 – 853) of gold China should have imported from the ROW. Could this have been possible? Yes, I think so as there are many counties of which I have no gold trade data (think about Africa, South America and central Asia).

On September 19 The Shanghai Customs District People’s Republic China reported Shanghai imported approximately 380 tonnes ($15.983 billion) of gold in 48 batches from January until August. Of course this gold can be the exact same metal I just reported to have been imported. However, Shanghai is just one port in China. From the SGE:

The SGE currently has a network of 58 Certified Vaults (of which 55 are for gold storage and three are for silver storage) in 36 cities nationwide covering all major gold refinement and consumption regions, providing physical delivery, transfer, logistics, and transport services to enterprises and individuals across the country.

I assume gold can be imported directly to many other regions than Shanghai (Shenzhen, Beijing, etc.)

The 936 tonnes import is an estimate, though, the only way this estimate could have been lower is if scrap supply was higher, which is unlikely as the Chinese are clearly accumulating more gold in an environment of low gold prices, not selling.

One thing is for sure, China has at least imported 900 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2014. If we add 338 tonnes of mine supply the total is 1,238 tonnes, which is already twice Chinese demand as reported by the World Gold Council. The gold trade numbers disclosed in this post can not be explained as weak Chinese gold demandI hope this post gives you a clear view of how much Chinese gold demand is in contrast to the reports of the mainstream media.

Koos Jansen
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  • rowingboat

    Excellent analysis, Koos.

    “The UK net exported 1424 tonnes in 2013, which took a large bite out of London’s floating supply. How much there is left remains to be seen”

    Sum up UK net imports from 2001 to 2012, and that will provide a potential figure of around 4000 tonnes. James Turk demonstrated years ago that gold flows into London during bull markets and out during bear markets.

    Another approach is to estimate how much gold was in the UK in 2001 at the end of a long 20-year bear market when gold was universally hated in the West. That’s where we could get to again potentially… but I doubt it given how GLD holders have stubbornly held on this year as gold has fallen below all-in production costs.

    Assuming the LBMA figure of 9000 tonnes as the peak holding in London and subtract 4000 tonnes gives us 5000 tonnes. From the BOE annual reports, around 3500 tonnes was stored on behalf of central banks leaving just 1500 tonnes in bullion bank vaults, which is bugger-all at the end of a long bear.

    • sb

      Out of 1500-2000mt left of gold accumulated in London since 2001 a big chunk is not controlled by bullion banks (e.g. 600mt is in GLD etf). A float gold could be a few hundred tonnes.

      I think the spot gold market is very tight at the moment, the gold lease rates curve is inverted (1m rate higher than 2m rate), the level of 1m is the highest since the beginning of 2009.

      The increased demand from China (additional 50-60mt/month) plus rising India demand (additional at least 20-30mt/month) is having a problem finding supply. The situation is getting worse as India demand is still rising, from what I saw in October India imported 110mt (Reuters/Bloomberg claim it was 150mt) up from 95mt in September, November imports are still strong, to be around 150mt if it holds for the full month based on data I have access to. It looks like the UK net gold exports will hit around 100mt in October. We should get a confirmation of this at the end of this month when Switzerland publishes its import/export data.

      It is hard to say how long the current situation will last. I guess within 2-3 months big managed money shorts (80k contracts) will cover the position which will trigger a $100-150 gold rally. The futures gold market is quite nervous now, $60 rally last Friday or a $50 rally the previous Friday. It would be interesting to watch the future roll which will start at the end of this month, the shorts may decide to close their position instead of rolling it.

      • KoosJansen

        Let’s not forget ROW gold demand.

      • rowingboat

        “It looks like the UK net gold exports will hit around 100mt in October”

        It didn’t get anywhere near that, sb, at least not to Switzerland. And a high proportion of “scrap” in October imports compared with prior months too (CHF/Kg):

        Interesting to me that 55 gold producing countries representing 99% of global production are on the list, yet they’ve only exported about 700 tonnes to Switzerland by my calculations this year.

        Of that 700 tonne ‘production flow’, almost half (335) went to the Middle East and “minor” Asian countries. Then of course there is HK (299), India (380) and China (153). Exports to India will need to rise next year too, and probably quite substantially.

        • sb

          Yes, that was a surprise to me. The gold in October was not coming from the UK but from Swiss vaults. Switzerland net exported 100mt in October.

          Indian gold imports in November will be huge 150-160mt, December looks very weak so far, below 50mt/month. I think this low demand is responsible for Gofo being positive again.

          It will be interesting to see November Swiss data to see who leased gold, only China and India imported around 300mt that month.

          Some gold producing countries export gold directly e.g. Australia (mainly to China), SA, USA and Canada (mainly to the UK). There is also a case that some gold is flowing through USA and Canada, many miners based in these countries own gold mines in other countries.

          • KoosJansen

            I tried many sources, but I can’t seem to see any significant tonnage going through the US.
            tried ft-900 reports
            tried regular customs data
            tried Eurostat, to see import from US

          • sb

            US exports gold mainly to HK, Switzerland and the UK. It imports gold from Canada and Central/South America.

            source http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/country/

            USGS publishes nice summaries


          • KoosJansen

            Cool, the USGS data is perfect. Never used it, now I will 🙂

          • sb

            BTW. Did you get any info who selling/lending gold from Swiss vaults? BIS has a few hundred tonnes of gold. Could that be a BIS intervention?

          • KoosJansen


          • sb

            December gold demand is very weak. India imported only 8mt in the first week, SGE withdrawals 38mt in the same period.

          • KoosJansen

            SB! How do you know withdrawals before it’s friday??

          • sb

            They published them yesterday. I was surprised as well.

          • rowingboat

            Thanks for these sources of information, sb, and I’ve spent the last 2 days punching all of this data into my own spreadsheets. Do you have a recommended source/link for the UK import/export of gold bullion, which would close the US-Swiss-UK loop?

            There is so much to discuss regarding all of this, just typing in the data I wish all of the gold websites/analysts who deal in misinformation and conspiracy theories could read it. Would it make any difference to them? Probably not.

            One thing I immediately noticed is that more US gold exports are now flowing to Switzerland instead of UK, particularly in the Aug-Dec period in 2013. I guess if most of the gold ends up in HK/China via Switzerland anyway, it’s more efficient for the USA to export directly to Switzerland instead of via UK for refining.

          • sb

            You can get UK data from

            Eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/international_trade/data/database


            UK HMRC https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/BuildYourOwnTables/Pages/Home.aspx

            Yes, it is true there is a lot of misinformation, even WGC doesn’t seem to understand the market. The market is focusing on some minor news e.g. Ukrainian gold but misses 300 mt imported by China and India in one month.

            Having said that there is some true that the gold market is not quite fair, US/UK controls the gold price but most of demand is in Asia.

            The price is driven by the future market where mostly US investors bet on macro trends e.g. rates in the US. They don’t seem to pay much attention to gold demand/supply. The link between US futures market and spot gold is maintained in London by banks. This link is quite arbitrary and it can only be kept if imbalances are not too big. If they are too big banks will run out of the gold to borrow.

          • KoosJansen

            If the gold price is suppressed BB’s/CB’s need to supply physical metal to keep the phyz price equal to the paper price.

          • sb

            I didn’t say banks suppress price. I think it is more about controlling the market so that they make more money. Greed is a simpler explanation than a conspiracy.

          • rowingboat

            Did you notice that Jan/Feb exports from UK to Switzerland of 238mt this year was mainly in UNWROUGHT form (71081200) instead of bars? I got that from the Eurostat site, which I’m finding better than uktradeinfo. RE your India demand comment further down, I guess reports of importers front-running expectations of further restrictions were correct.

          • sb

            No, I didn’t. What is value of this export or fine gold equivalent tonnage?

            I think there is more than importers stopped front-running further restrictions. The Indian gold imports dropped the next day after the announcement. If it was only an importer reaction to the announcement it would take a few days for the imports to drop as there were some orders already on the way.
            The article below suggests a plausible explanation, Indian customs stopped clearing gold imports. That would also explain why gofo didn’t go up immediately. It took some time to clear backlog of order and for the importers to stop ordering new gold.

          • rowingboat

            In the spreadsheet from the Swiss website I convert to fine gold using this calculation: 091/M91*L91. So Switzerland imported 27.8mt fine gold versus 28.3mt stated in Oct from the UK. From Jan-Oct it works out to be 466.1mt versus 478.7 stated. Therefore according to Swiss data, UK exported 438.3mt fine gold to Switzerland, Jan-Sept.

            Turning to the Eurostat website, the UK from Jan-Sept exported 251mt bars (71081310) + 196.5mt unwrought (71081200) = 447.6mt. This is slightly less than what the Swiss reported in bulk (478.7), due to timing differences probably. Using Jan-Sept data from both sources, the unwrought component (196.5) is 187.2mt fine gold equivalent tonnage.

          • KoosJansen

            At Eurostat I always use HS4, 7108, as I’ve seen bars being reported in several categories under the 7108 umbrella. Should be all gold IMO (just check with value)

          • rowingboat

            Yes me too for the historic 1988+ data and then I started cross-checking for shorter time frames. From Jan to Aug 2014 the US data gives 45.7mt exported to UK. But the EuroStat data, HS4 7108, gives 49.8mt received by UK from USA. The 7108 data is either the same or slightly more than the US number each month. This suggests the US is reporting fine gold tonnage but the UK is reporting bulk… however more forward data is needed to make that conclusion.

            The other reason why I have doubts about HS4, 7108 is that the Swiss data states they’ve received 478.7mt from the UK, Jan to Oct 2014. My calculations above suggest they’ve received 466.1mt in fine form, so slightly less… something to keep an eye on each month at least.

          • sb

            So UK and Swiss data agree, it is only a classification difference.

          • rowingboat

            Note my comment below about UK vs. USA data. In September USA exported 13mt of fine gold to UK (released yesterday). However, according to Eurostat the UK received 16.8mt from USA (bars, no unwrought). The difference between UK / US reporting from Jan-Sept 2014 is now 66.6 vs 58.7. Is this due to older bars / coin melt, reminding me of this post by Bron Suchecki earlier this year:

          • rowingboat

            that makes sense thanks and if I’ve got my math right, only 29 tonnes from South Africa, 12t (Canada) but much more from USA to Switzerland (146t) this year. So the small blips on Koos’ UK charts in 2014 are imports from these three producing countries.

            Do you know where investment demand was sourced from, UK imports 2001-2012, was that via Switzerland mainly? And where did Switzerland source its investment demand for that matter?

            What’s revealing to me is if you subtract UK exports to Switzerland in 2014, Swiss imports are below levels at the beginning of the 2001-2011 bull market. It seems less gold is passing through Switzerland compared with then.

          • sb

            Based on the data I saw I would guess that around 10% of the UK imports were sourced from Switzerland. UK imports 80-90% gold from the US, Canada, SA, Australia and Hong Kong.

            There is no historical data which breakdowns Swiss gold imports by country, Switzerland has been publishing such data only since Jan 2014. There is a chance they will back fill data in the online database.

            I think Switzerland is now
            1) refining gold for countries which don’t have its own capabilities 2) remelting Europe scrap
            3) remelting LBMA bars into smaller bars for Asia
            4) storage of investment gold (private and Swiss banks)

  • philipat

    Koos, have you asked WGC how they get their data and why they do not (Presumably) accept the data now officially published in China? I did but despite their published policy on responses to enquiries, I have not received any response after 4 weeks and am not holding my breath!

    I know it is difficult for you to comment but I do find it extraordinary that a “World Council;”, which should be promoting the product or service it is set up to represent , seems almost to be acting against the best interests of both Gold and its own membership. It is incomprehensible to me that any Gold Miner would pay good money to be a member of such an Organisation. In fact, if all the Miners withdrew, that would leave only the banking interests behind, which would make their Agenda much more visible.

    How can any Organisation which purports to represent the interests of Gold not have published any supporting analysis or made ANY statement on The Swiss Gold initiative? Again, quite extraordinary.

    • KoosJansen

      Keep asking the WGC! Many people do 🙂 (sorry this comments section is ‘approval first’, I’ve had some trolls hanging around)

    • rowingboat

      It comes down to methodology of measurement and the limitations thereof. The WGC estimates UK consumer demand as only a few tonnes each year while the UK net imported hundreds of tonnes annually during the bull market.

      • KoosJansen

        The UK is the largest gold trade market for centuries. UK import and export has got nothing to do with UK demand. In China it’s different, coz export is prohibited from the mainland. The SGEI in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is founded to facilitate global physical trade in renminbi.

        • rowingboat

          That’s right Koos but it explains why Western investors have governed the gold price and will continue to do so. They import into the UK, via bullion banks, over many years when macroeconomics favour gold investment and then dump it to switch asset classes when the macro environment changes.

          The WGC methodology can’t measure this demand and the gold flow into UK, explaining such a huge discrepancy between the UK import data and their UK demand data. And it’s a similar situation in China, explaining the large difference between WGC Chinese consumer demand and your demand stats.

          There’s a thick layer of investment / divestment flow which is missing from their analysis and I don’t think is even measurable without looking at the import / export data..

          • KoosJansen

            The UK can’t be compared to China. Many people around the world own gold in London (allocated or unallocated) as well as in Switzerland. Nobody owns gold in China, only the Chinese.

          • rowingboat

            Well nobody owns gold in India either except the Indians but that’s beside the point. The point is the investors who import into UK, via the bullion banks over many years, are quite prepared to dump it and to dump it big-time for export, and all of this isn’t being measured by the WGC and for that matter, the wider gold community either. I don’t believe there’s even been any acknowledgement of the amount of gold being imported into the UK over the last decade.

          • sb

            It is not only UK. Switzerland net imported 1700 mt since 2008. In total the UK and Switzerland accumulated 3500-4000 mt. Total gold in ETP and similar investments is only 1700 mt, which means there is probably a lot of gold hold directly by investors. Switzerland gold seems to be in strong hands, gold holdings dropped only by 180 mt in 2013 (UK by 1400 mt). Between 2008-2012 UK and Switzerland stored in their vaults 5100 mt, 1000 tonnes per year.

          • KoosJansen

            According to my numbers the Swiss lost nothing in 2013

          • sb
          • KoosJansen

            What price did you use for CHF value? (I just used tonnage)

          • sb

            Average export price. It should be close to gold spot price. Switzerland imports gold not always high purity, refines and exports high purity gold. Anyway whatever price you take Switzerland exported more gold than imported in 2013.

          • KoosJansen

            Hmm, interesting. So you are saying, all imports and exports are disclosed in gross weight (of course valued at fine weight). But than how do you calculate fine import/export tonnage without more price info? Net export was 180 mt in 2013 according to you.

          • sb

            You get price by dividing export value by export tonnage (the assumption is export is pure gold) you use then that price to dive import value to get fine imports.

            Check the monthly data, you see that price for exports is 36-38k CHF per kg for different countries, for imports the range is 3k-38k e.g. Argentina exported 10mt valued only 30mln CHF,nobody would sell 10mt of fine gold 10 times cheaper.

          • KoosJansen

            Export value divided by export tonnage is disclosed (price = red), just like import value divided by imported tonnage (price = blue).

            Can we just exchange the red price? Are the red and blue price ‘taken on the same time’?

          • sb

            I was using export price (red price) to convert both export and import values to fine gold tonnage. Red and blue prices are average prices over the year, they are not prices on for any particular a moment in time.

          • KoosJansen

            Thanks for your comment!

  • TeaT

    Finland exported about 6,3t (YTD) (CN-code 7108). Our custom tells only total value of trade and it was about 197M€. Unfortunately our custom doesn’t tell quantity or destination country of gold trade (http://www.tulli.fi/fi/suomen_tulli/ulkomaankauppatilastot/luokitukset/salaukset/liitteet/salaus_2014_01.xls)

    Eurostats also doesn’t include monetary gold because European Union countries have agreed that foreign monetary gold trade have to be excluded from statistics:
    monetary gold;
    ( http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32010R0113&rid=12)

    • KoosJansen

      No country reports on monetary gold. This post was only about non-monetary gold. Finland may have exported some gold, but not directly to China.

    • rowingboat

      TeaT, by my calculation Finland has exported 7.7mt of gold to Switzerland in the first 10 months of 2014. You can check the source and run your own calcs at the link below. In return, Finland has only imported 0.3 mt from Switzerland so it would appear we have another country in the West, which has turned net buyer to seller.


  • Doolie

    As your office is in Singapore may be you can tell us a bit about their gold import / exports, I suspect they too are significant ?

    • KoosJansen

      Will do.

  • TeaT

    I think Dubai is also one significant source of Chinese gold. They are expanding their refining capabilities and they have significant trading volume:
    “In 2013, almost 40 per cent of the world’s physical gold trade came through Dubai and the value of total gold traded through Dubai grew to US$75 billion, compared to US$6 billion in 2003, and US$70 billion in 2012.
    Dubai also saw an annual trade volume increase of 73 per cent accounting for 2,250 tonnes of gold, Sulayem said.”
    ( http://www.uaeinteract.com/docs/Dubai_gold_trade_climbs_to_US$75_billion/60959.htm , http://www.dmcc.ae/dubai-gold-trade-statistics

  • Donald Benson

    Another excellent analysis.

    The only point I would make is that if China is reluctant to disclose the actual amount of their gold holdings, then they probably are not too unhappy with the World Gold Council’s understated reports. So, to continue having access to what limited information you do receive, I’d suggest not being too aggressive in the criticisms of the WGC, because if they were to change and publish figures much closer to your numbers, China might then conceivably put restrictions on any sources of gold information, in order to keep their true amounts secret.

  • http://kriewaldtlaw.com/site/ David Kriewaldt

    That’s a very thorough analysis. It puts the World Gold Council report to shame.

  • Spartacusstoo

    This topic has been on my mind for quite some time….who is providing the Chinese gold? Of course to date, it seems to me, that not too many have been banging on the table demanding to know where all this gold is coming from and why are the Chinese putting so much money into gold when their debt structure is growing like a Frankenstein monster.
    And thus we get to the really big question about what doest the US have in its vaults? In other words, since the Fed is so very obviously pushing on the brake pedal for gold, do they have an alterior motive besides trying to keep the dollar up and inflation up, a pradoxical relationship. I think some meaningful answers on this topic would give all a sense of where gold price is going and when.

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