Koos Jansen
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Koos Jansen
Posted on 15 Jun 2014 by

Guest Post: Oil, War And Islam

The biggest newspaper in the Netherlands is De Telegraaf. One of their best columnists for the financial pages, Alexander Sassen Van Elsloo, recently wrote an article that was promptly removed by De Telegraaf after publication – it was too much about politics instead of finance according the newspaper. Reason for me to ask Alexander for permission to translate te article (a valuable geopolitical analysis) and share it with my readers. “Sure“, he answered.

Alexander Sassen van Elsloo
Alexander Sassen van Elsloo

Oil, War And Islam

by Alexander Sassen Van Elsloo, June 16, 2014.

The Middle East is kind of a geopolitical pilot flame; each time it’s politically desirable for great powers (especially the U.S.) fuel is added and the region is ablaze. Apparently it was desirable for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that Sunni terrorists ((affiliated with terrorist number one: Al-Qaeda)) conquer parts of Iraq. This assumption seems strange (Al Qaeda is after all a sworn enemy of the U.S.), but recent U.S. actions all point in the same direction: the U.S. allowed this to happen. There are two reasons for this: Iran and oil. For investors this means a period of geopolitical tensions that at least wil put a floor under the price of oil. For the people in the region this means a humanitarian disaster of enormous proportions. Something the beneficiaries of this conflict are accountable for.

Iran greatest threat

Since the fall of Saddam Hussein the Americans have a big problem: the Shiites. Many people think that the biggest clash of Islam has to do with Jews and/or Christians, but this is not true. The greatest conflict of Islam lies within Islam: the Shiites and the Sunnis have been in conflict for many centuries. After the reign of Saddam (who belonged to the Sunni minority of 30% of the Iraqi population) it was the turn of the Shiites (60% of the Iraqi population) to rule Iraq. Iran grabbed this opportunity with both hands and supported Iraqi Shiites in many ways. The plan is to build an Shiite empire, including Syria, Lebanon and the north of Saudi Arabia, controlled by Iran. While only 10 percent of the population in Saudi Arabia is Shia, they are concentrated in the north of the country. And here’s the catch: many of the oil fields in Saudi Arabia are in the north where the Shiites are being suppressed.

Iraq

The plot thickens

Saudi Arabia fears that the Shiites, led by Iran, seize power in these areas. The nuclear ambitions of Iran should also be seen in this context; Iran with a nuclear weapon would the most powerful Shiite regime to unite all other Shia in the region. This new empire (Caliphate) would have the largest oil reserves in the world. For this reason, Saudi Arabia supports Sunni terrorists under the name ISIS/the Levant and the U.S. condones it. Even more proof of U.S. support for what’s happening was its willingness to support these same terrorists to fight the Syrian government of Assad, which is an ally of Iran. If it wasn’t desirable for the U.S., these terrorist groups would have never entered Iraq. The Pentagon saw three Russian tanks crossing the Ukraine border, but failed to notice hordes of tanks, jeeps and jihadist crossing the Syrian border with Iraq. Right. The fact that the U.S. ignored repeated requests from the Iraqi government for air support only confirms this. This leads me to the irony of the story; the U.S. (and the West) need the Al-Qaeda Sunni terrorists to prevent Iran from establishing a large Shiite empire.

One man’s loss is another man’s gain

This situation is a humanitarian disaster for ordinary Sunni and Shiite civilians in Iraq and a financial disaster for the tax payers in the West (higher energy prices and defense spending). The winners are the usual suspects: oil and gas producing countries (such as the U.S. and Saudi Arabia), the defense industry and politicians who need to divert the attention from problems in their own countries.

War for and because of oil

The Middle East is again in flames. Together with the soured Arab springs in the region, investors can assume that oil prices have at least firm support in the near future. Geopolitical tensions are not the only movers of the price of oil (in contrast, a cooling world economy will have a downward pressure), but because the potential of this conflict to derail is so high, I personally see little downside risk. If all humanitarian costs would be included, oil consists of an horrific amount of blood, some sweat and many tears. I prefer to see peace in the Middle East, but that is apparently not desirable for the big geopolitical players and the leaders of Islamic terrorist organizations. Each of the parties involved sees its own advantage in this warped game of chess. The difficult question to ask oneself is: “considering past mistakes in foreign policy as a given, what can/should the West do to stop Iran from uniting the Shiites, while preventing the ISIS from doing the same with the Sunnis?” I suspect that the answer might be very unsettling.

Koos Jansen
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  • ZeroComments

    “it was too much about politics instead of finance”

    zero Comments

    • In Gold We Trust

      Yes, and these things have nothing common.. right..

      • ThreeCommentsLater

        a fair point; what next? – Celebrity Cooking with Koos, COMEX Has Got Talent, Next Gold Blog Idol or Strictly Come Speculating?

        these things also have plenty in common – they are vacuous, aimed not at trying to inform or educate but merely to entertain, pumped out 24/7 from a myriad of largely indistinguishable sources, intended largely to distract and stupify a compliant audience as a proxy for independent thought, and indicative of the terminal decline of previously revered media channels

        nothing to see here, then, move along now – the World Cup is on later

  • DameEdnasPossum

    All stands to reason.

    No doubt though several deluded sheeple commentators here will deny the validity of this plausible explanation or probably even claim it is the US’s god-given right to destroy parts of the human race for the monetary gain of their masters and controllers (not that the plebs will gain any benefits, but instead will willingly sacrifice their own children on the altar of greedy corporations while ‘defending’ their so called freedoms).

    The sooner the USD collapses and takes the corrupt zionist’s heavy-armed, sociopathic, medicated, megalomaniac, ‘exceptional’ USSA puppet with it…the better. Let’s just hope they don’t unleash all their armaments in the vain hope of salvaging their crumbling empire and in doing so, take all life on Earth with them. If the US doesn’t unleash armageddon, Israel certainly will…

  • ynot

    Alex has written things some people may not want to believe or even consider. After all, isn’t it too easy to paint Iran as the greatest threat? Did Iran invade Iraq during their war? Or was it the other way around? What other nation in the East possesses a nuclear arsenal and also antagonizes Iran? I accept some of Alex’s premises but have a difficult time accepting that Iran is the greatest threat in the East. Perhaps we should consider what Iran has had to deal with: 1) crippling economic sanctions by the US for decades (an act of war according to the UN) 2) the overthrow of democratically elected Mossaddegh by the US and 3) the US invasion of Iran under (oddly enough) the Carter administration, If one does not want to call landing military planes inside a foreign country an invasion, then what to call it? An act of war? Perhaps a better title for Alex’s article should be “Oil, War and Religious Extremism”.

  • vizeet

    I have been suspecting this and this article confirms my understanding. Shia and Sunni are at war for centuries but in India they mostly live in peace. Problem is there is power interest in Arabian countries which are backed by super powers. I think not Iran but Russia is the greatest threat for US. And ofcourse Russia and China friendly relations. US does not want Russia to become powerful. For Russia to become powerful, Iran and Syria had to have peace.
    Economics is dependent on politics.

  • Michael Yates

    Good article, not in the least bit “news” to those of us who know how the real world works, but I’m glad to see it finally percolating up through the media. The sad truth for a few decades has been that reporters and writers are clueless about these wars, now I’m seeing more and more writers in mainstream media waking up and writing the truth, or something closer to the truth.

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