Tag Archives: gold ditribution

SGE Physical Delivery 2073 Tons YTD, 50 Tons From 9-13 December

The amount of gold withdrawn from the Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults has been increasing in recent weeks. After an explosive week in April, when 117 tons of gold were withdrawn, weekly averages came down to a constant 40 tons throughout the year. At the end of October it seemed Chinese demand for physical gold was declining, but since  November weekly physical delivery has been north of 40 tons. In between 9 and 13 December 50.4 tons of gold were withdrawn from the vaults. Year to date 2073 tons have been withdrawn, which equals to Chinese gold demand according to the PBOC.

Premiums in Shanghai have remained around 1 % over international spot in recent weeks.

USGS estimated total world mining production would be 2700 tons this years, but this estimate was made before the price collapsed in April. After the price drop numerous mines were shut down and thus total world mining production will be far lower than what was expected in January. It could very well be that SGE physical delivery in week 50, which was 50.4 tons, surpassed global mining production, which was estimated at 54.9 tons, but we can only be sure about this when we have the official mining data at year end.

 

Overview Shanghai Gold Exchange data week 50

– 50 metric tonnes delivered in week 50 (withdrawn from the SGE vaults), 09-12-2013/13-12-2013
– w/w  + 13.8 %
– 2073 metric tonnes delivered year to date
– weekly average 41.46 tonnes YTD, 2013 estimate yearly total 2156 tonnes.

Source: SGEUSGS

For more information on SGE delivery read thisthisthis and this.

Shanghai Gold Exchange gold withdrawn from vault week 50, 2013

Screen dump from SGE trade report; the second number from the left (本周交割量) is weekly physical delivery, the second number from the right (累计交割量) is total delivery YTD.


Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals from vault week 50

Gold premiums on the SGE based on data from the weekly reports. Difference between SGE gold price in yuan and international gold price in yuan.

SGE premiums week 50, 2013 

Below is a screen dump of the premium section of the SGE weekly report; the first column is the date, the third is the international gold price in yuan, the fourth is the SGE price in yuan, and the last is the difference.

SGE premiums week 50

In Gold We Trust

SGE foreign exchange gold system

West To East Gold Distribution Update

The great distribution of wealth and power, facilitated by gold, from west to east is still going strong. From looking at available global trade numbers we know the main gold vein runs from the UK through Switzerland, through Hong Kong, eventually reaching Shanghai. Let’s take a look at the latest data.

Starting Point: The London Gold Vaults

It started in January when the UK, home of the London Gold Market, net exported 74 tons of gold to Switzerland. As we can see in the chart below this is not unusual, we saw similar events in the beginning and in the end of 2011. But this year export accelerated to a spike May, in which 237 tons were net exported to the Swiss. A staggering amount of gold, nearly as much as the official gold reserves of the Bank Of England. Through the summer these exports remained elevated, year to date the UK has net exported 1235 tons of gold in total, of which 1109 tons to Switzerland.

UK gold export

In September the UK net exported 117 tons of gold, down from 119 tons in august, – 1.7 % m/m. Net export to Switzerland was 107 tons in September, up from 98 tons in August, + 9.1 % m/m. This implies we have not seen the end of the gold exodus from the UK.

GLD Redemptions

A significant portion of UK gold exports are being supplied by ETF stocks. GLD, which is the biggest gold ETF in the world and whose vaults are in London, was drained for 444 tons in the first three quarters of this year. At this moment GLD’s inventory stands at 866 tons, more stock suited for it’s authorized participants to be redeemed and shipped to the east.
note “Unallocated Accounts”

 

Remelting The Gold Bars In Switzerland

Although the Swiss, discreet as they are, do not publish country specific with whom they trade gold, nevertheless, their total trade numbers are very clear. Being one of the biggest trading, refining and storage centers in the world, vast amounts of gold cross their borders. In 2012 they have imported 2267 tons of gold and exported 1550 tons. On average import has transcended export by 25 % in recent years, which emphasizes Switzerland’s storage function over this period. This has changed as the Swiss have imported 2420 tons and exported 2184 tons in the first three quarters of this year. Meaning not only trade is surging, but also that the gap between import and export is tightening. As was confirmed by Switzerland’s biggest refinery, all gold coming in from London is being remelted into kilobars and sent forward to China.
If we annualize gold export for 2013 the outcome is 2912 tons, 1362 tons more than in 2012. Gold that partially is shipped to Hong Kong, partially directly to Shanghai.

Transit Port Hong Kong

Most (but certainly not all!) gold that is imported by China mainland comes in through Hong Kong. Year to date Switzerland has net exported 697 tons of gold to Hong Kong. A surge of 445 % if we measure just the first three quarters relative to 2012 totals.

 

Net export from Hong Kong to the mainland is 826 tons of gold year to date.

 

Just the official route has brought 826 tons of gold to China year to date, annualized 1100 tons. If we add 400 tons Chinese mining supply the total is 1500 tons othat will meet demand.
Whilst the World Gold Council estimates Chinese consumer demand will be over 1000 tons, my estimate is it will be over 2000 tons. In my humble opinion just the official route raises a few eyebrows to the WGC demand numbers. If we then take into account gold is also shipped into China through other ports than Hong Kong, more eyebrows are raised.
In a future post I will describe in detail how I calculated my estimate.
In Gold We Trust