Koos Jansen
BullionStar Blogs
Koos Jansen
Posted on 4 Apr 2014 by

GOFO Turned Negative AGAIN: The Consequences

Today (April 3, 2014) the one month Gold Forward Offered Rate (GOFO) turned negative again. This is the seventh time since July 8, 2013 this has happened. I would like to share a few thoughts on this.

A few weeks ago when I wanted to see and download GOFO rates these were easily accessible on the LBMA website. This site, however, recently suffered a makeover. A few days ago I couldn’t find the GOFO rates at all, then when I did find them I noted they weren’t allowed to copy! I directly emailed the LBMA about it, this was their response:

The LBMA do not own the gold and silver prices, we publish the prices on our website under an agreement with the London Gold and Silver Fixing companies, who own the data and who are responsible for setting the gold and silver prices on a daily basis. When we launched the new website, this was on condition that we prevented the data from being downloaded or scraped from the site. If you would like to be able to download the data you will require a licence from the Gold and Silver Fixing Companies.

Nice one, no more GOFO data for the average Joe to analyse. I immediately requested a license at the London Gold and Silver Fixing companies to be able to download the GOFO rates. In the meantime I spent a couple of hours manually writing the rates one by one in my excel sheet from the new LBMA website.

Gofo Rates On LBMA site

The LBMA also changed the order of the rates; the last date is now at the top. Just to make things a little easier.

What Is GOFO?

I will just skim the surface here, I will write about GOFO in detail in coming posts. First lets have a look at some equations and what factors determine GOFO to help us understand what GOFO is.

LIBOR (USD loan) – GLR (Gold Lease Rate, XAU loan) = GOFO

LIBOR – GOFO = GLR

LIBOR is the average interest rate estimated by leading banks in London that they would be charged if borrowing from other banks. It’s a benchmark for fiat money interest rates all over the world. Many consumer interest rates like mortgages and credit card loans are derived from LIBOR.

The gold lease rate (GLR) is the interest rate on gold. If a central bank chooses to lend (lease) some of its gold reserves, it agrees on an interest rate with the borrower. For example, the US Treasury, which is the owner of the gold on the Fed’s balance sheet, decides to lend 3 metric tonnes for 1 year to a jeweller against a 2 % interest rate. A year later the jeweller has to repay the US Treasury 3,06 metric tonnes. In this transaction paper gold would be created out of thin air, as at the start of the lease the gold would be physically transported to the jeweller but would remain on the Treasury’s balance sheet as gold receivable (assuming the Treasury would disclose the distinction between gold and gold receivables). Double counting the same gold creates gold. When the gold loan is payed back by the jeweller the created gold vanishes. Just as in fractional reserve banking at commercial banks.

Gold loans exist in various forms, they can also be done through a book entry at a bullion bank without physically moving gold. The GLR is determined by supply (gold lenders) and demand (gold borrowers) in the gold market.

The Consequences Of Negative GOFO

From looking at the equations we can conclude GOFO is the difference in interest rate between US dollars (USD) and gold (XAU). When the three months GOFO is negative, it means the interest rate to borrow XAU for three months is higher than the interest rate to borrow USD for three months; there is more demand for XAU than USD. This suggests the value of gold expressed in dollars will rise.

Bear in mind we live in a ZIRP bubble bath, there is such USD supply (out of thin air) that LIBOR is exorbitant low.

Nevertheless in the following chart we can see that when GOFO is trending down the price of gold (XAUUSD) is pushed up.

GOFO goldprice

In the above chart I made the negative GOFO periods grey. The gold price (right axis) tends to go up in these periods. If GOFO persists to trend lower it’s very likely the price of gold will rise. When we look back a couple of years, we can see that every time GOFO dipped in negative territory a strong bull market in gold followed. I expect to see the same in coming years.

GOFO history

 

Deutsche bank that recently announced to stop participating in the London gold fix (and is one of the banks under investigation of manipulating the London gold fix) wrote this on GOFO, from their Quarterly Commodities Report April 2013:

Historically, GOFO rates have only been negative twice since 1999, but have frequently moved into negative territory over the past year. We believe this is a result of on going large shift of gold from the west to the east. More recently, with GOFO turning positive, it suggests that physical tightness has eased at least in the near term.

Well guess what, GOFO is back negative again and the west to east gold exodus is long from over.

Koos Jansen
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  • Jeffrey

    Thanks Koos! I wait for your articles every day! They are invaluable! What is amazing to me is the irony of all this! Madoff, pronounced Made-off, who made off with his client´s money and you need to get a license from the what? Gold and Silver Fixing Companies. Could not name them any better, fixing is exactly what they do every day! I cannot wait til this all pops and these skumbags get their due! As an US citizen I can honestly say that I am cheering for China and Russia because the gold buying countries will bring order and honesty back into the markets!!!!! The people who are running the US, the zionist, neo-cons and neo-liberals are destroying so many lives all over the world! This needs to stop soon! Thanks again Koos you are a warrior!

  • Antonius

    Great work Koos, keep it up!

    Can I also suggest some tech tips that will make it easy to document the GOFO rates from the public website. Firstly take a screen shot of the rates from the website and then paste in paintbrush and create an image. Then use an OCR program on the image to detect the numbers and convert them to text.

  • solarcircle

    Can someone tell me where I can find the GOFO rates as I can no longer find them at the LBMA site even though I did a search there? Thanks

  • http://goldchat.blogspot.com/ Bron Suchecki

    They will give you a license Koos, but it isn’t free and I doubt you will be able to afford it. Data these days has a price.

    • Unai

      Thanks for your huge value added input Bron.

      The data in itself is free, Koos wants just to be able to copy it. For not manually filling
      every cell in his xls sheet.

      By the way, it is true: he is just a poor, few resources analyst who cannot afford even this
      tiny license indeed. I do not think people should read/trust him.

      Keep your subtle “everything is fine in the gold market” propaganda work. You are just
      doing fine.

      Signed: another conspiracy theory goldbug fool.

      And in line with my foolishness, I guess Perth Mint has the license required to download
      the data. How about you sending Koos a weekly xls sheet with the numbers? You
      could do so with just 5 min of your unbelievable free time for writing your
      subtle messages.

      • Albert

        I tried copying the tables in my excel sheet and I had no problem at all, I don’t know what the problem is. You can then transpose the numbers from rows to columns however you like. Even make pivot tables.

        • Albert

          And if you don’t believe me, here it is, in just 1 second.

      • http://goldchat.blogspot.com/ Bron Suchecki

        Whoa, big over reaction there. I was not making any slight on Koos, these guys are licensing to Reuters and Bloomberg so the cost is probably going to be really high – the data is not free, my point is that these days everyone seems to be trying to make a buck wherever they can, unfortunately.
        How you read in to my comment that I think no one should read him, or that I push a “everything is fine” line I don’t know.
        We do not license the data, but can access it via our Reuters subscription but no, we cannot supply that to anyone as that would be in breach of the subscription terms.

  • rowingboat

    The next few weeks could get interesting again depending how Western gold owners react to the unfolding data. In Australian media today, GoldMan says it’s now SHOWTIME for the US recovery and “These dynamics have begun to influence market pricing more clearly in the past couple of weeks”
    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/04/goldman-its-showtime-for-the-us-recovery/

  • pieffe

    Eccellente job…..indeed. ..Thanks KOOS….Please edit gofo day by day for us…..as you say….It seems crucial data….

    • In Gold We Trust

      Second day negative..

      • Wi Tu Lo

        In the long term the base is in a declining trend which will ultimately turn negative. Traditionally, however, this base is positive. If the futures price exceeds the spot price, this is called contango . A perennial contango is characteristic of precious metals and suggests that there are large above-ground inventories in relation to annual mine production. Through monetary devaluation, however, the fiat currencies lose value. And that can be the basis of gold and silver fall, and the contango disappear . If the futures price decreases inversely with the spot price , it is called backwardation. This is equivalent to a negative base. It points out that the monetary metals disappear from the market .

        “The gold and silver basis is the only way to measure the more or less slowly progressing, general deterioration of value irredeemable currencies at all. Exactly these changes of the base give reference to the hedge against monetary inflation. Interestingly, with the base can be made considerably less risky business , so with the purchase and sale on the basis of market prices .

        It should therefore be clear that there are “some” banks in this world that do just that. Making ongoing transactions with the gold and silver base (and not with the gold and silver rate). They buy metal, when the base is high and sell it, if it is low.
        This way they generate a steady income on gold and silver based on their gold and silver reserves. The proof that they are actually active in the market in this way is excessively large short involvement in the gold and silver futures market . It is completely absurd to attribute this short interest to the activity of Jurassic Park creatures and the scapegoat in the form of “naked” silver commercials. Excessive size of the short interest in gold and silver is only the visible side of the hedging activities of the bullion banks and others – the invisible side is their metal reserves.”

        A. Fekete

  • jor47

    Hello Koos, your posts belong to the honest sources of information and may be seen as a fata morgana in the hell desert of manipulative corruption. Thanks for your work!
    My opinion:
    Libor of course is a rigged and distorted, non trustworthy parameter. The parameter that counts is the number of ounces I carry in my pocket. And for the security I read from your posts I know the precious metals are cheap, very cheap (Don’t touch or try to change the running horses…;-).

    • In Gold We Trust

      Thanks! Please consider making a donation if you would like to help me continue my research.

  • Navigator
  • Gerrit

    Hej Koos, this site might be usefull: http://www.quandl.com/OFDP/GOLD_3-LBMA-Gold-Forward-Offered-Rates-GOFO

    Prettig weekend

  • Alb Einstein

    Just to say, that using Firefox, you can right click on the GOFO data table and choose view frame source. With the use of a suitable piece of software, I think it would be possible to save the table then as XML and load so that it displays properly for copy/paste purposes etc.

  • In Gold We Trust

    Solution for GOFO data. Go to

    http://noscript.net/

    and install the extension “NoScript” for Firefox. Then when going to LBMA website you CAN copy the GOFO numbers.

    Afterwards it’s better, IMO, to deactivate the NoScript extension.

  • Y.

    to bypass GOFO protection

    I did it a few days ago and I do not recall it clearly but using Firefox and adblock, I was able to block

    oblive.co.uk##IMG[src=”/img/o.png”]

    http://lbma.oblive.co.uk/img/o.png

    and it did the trick. I think they are using an overlay image

    get rid of the image and you have access to the numbers

    Y.

    and BTW I saved gofo numbers since early 2013

  • Y.

    1 mois
    2 mois
    3 mois
    6 mois
    12 mois
    Gold

    2-janv-13
    0,29800
    0,32400
    0,35200
    0,43200
    0,48000
    1693,75

    3-janv-13
    0,29000
    0,32000
    0,34667
    0,42000
    0,46833
    1679,50

    4-janv-13
    0,27667
    0,31000
    0,34000
    0,41833
    0,47000
    1648,00

    7-janv-13
    0,27000
    0,30500
    0,33500
    0,41000
    0,46167
    1645,25

    8-janv-13
    0,27500
    0,30833
    0,33833
    0,39500
    0,44833
    1656,00

    9-janv-13
    0,30333
    0,32833
    0,35167
    0,39833
    0,45167
    1657,75

    10-janv-13
    0,32000
    0,34333
    0,36167
    0,40000
    0,46500
    1675,00

    11-janv-13
    0,31833
    0,34333
    0,36167
    0,40667
    0,46000
    1657,50

    14-janv-13
    0,31500
    0,34167
    0,36167
    0,40833
    0,45833
    1666,50

    15-janv-13
    0,30500
    0,33000
    0,35333
    0,40500
    0,45833
    1680,50

    16-janv-13
    0,26800
    0,30200
    0,32200
    0,39200
    0,44800
    1676,25

    17-janv-13
    0,27167
    0,30500
    0,33167
    0,40167
    0,45333
    1675,00

    18-janv-13
    0,28333
    0,31333
    0,33667
    0,40833
    0,45000
    1688,50

    21-janv-13
    0,28000
    0,31800
    0,34000
    0,40800
    0,45200
    1687,50

    22-janv-13
    0,28667
    0,32333
    0,34000
    0,40333
    0,45000
    1690,50

    23-janv-13
    0,28833
    0,32167
    0,33667
    0,40833
    0,45000
    1690,25

    24-janv-13
    0,29000
    0,32833
    0,34333
    0,40833
    0,44500
    1671,00

    25-janv-13
    0,29333
    0,32000
    0,34000
    0,40833
    0,44500
    1660,00

    28-janv-13
    0,29600
    0,32200
    0,34200
    0,41200
    0,46200
    1656,50

    29-janv-13
    0,30333
    0,33000
    0,34667
    0,40833
    0,45000
    1663,50

    30-janv-13
    0,30000
    0,32833
    0,34833
    0,41333
    0,44667
    1677,50

    31-janv-13
    0,29667
    0,32500
    0,34333
    0,40667
    0,43833
    1664,75

    1-févr-13
    0,29667
    0,31833
    0,33667
    0,41000
    0,44333
    1669,00

    4-févr-13
    0,29333
    0,31333
    0,33500
    0,40333
    0,43833
    1666,00

    5-févr-13
    0,29000
    0,31333
    0,33000
    0,39667
    0,42833
    1673,50

    6-févr-13
    0,29000
    0,30667
    0,32667
    0,39333
    0,42833
    1674,25

    7-févr-13
    0,28400
    0,29800
    0,32200
    0,38600
    0,43200
    1668,00

    8-févr-13
    0,28333
    0,30167
    0,32500
    0,38833
    0,43000
    1668,25

    11-févr-13
    0,27333
    0,28833
    0,31167
    0,37833
    0,42667
    1652,00

    12-févr-13
    0,25333
    0,27000
    0,29500
    0,36167
    0,41833
    1647,50

    13-févr-13
    0,22833
    0,26000
    0,28000
    0,35000
    0,41333
    1645,00

    14-févr-13
    0,20333
    0,22500
    0,25000
    0,33167
    0,40167
    1646,00

    15-févr-13
    0,18333
    0,20500
    0,23833
    0,31833
    0,38000
    1612,25

    18-févr-13
    0,18000
    0,20000
    0,22667
    0,31000
    0,37333
    1610,75

    19-févr-13
    0,17667
    0,19833
    0,22500
    0,31000
    0,37333
    1607,75

    20-févr-13
    0,18000
    0,19833
    0,21667
    0,30167
    0,36667
    1588,50

    21-févr-13
    0,18600
    0,19800
    0,21400
    0,30000
    0,37400
    1577,00

    22-févr-13
    0,16500
    0,18833
    0,20667
    0,29333
    0,36333
    1576,50

    25-févr-13
    0,16167
    0,18500
    0,20333
    0,29667
    0,35333
    1586,25

    26-févr-13
    0,14500
    0,17167
    0,19833
    0,29000
    0,34833
    1590,50

    27-févr-13
    0,14750
    0,17000
    0,20250
    0,29750
    0,35250
    1604,25

    28-févr-13
    0,13333
    0,15333
    0,18000
    0,26500
    0,33167
    1588,50

    1-mars-13
    0,13833
    0,15667
    0,17000
    0,25833
    0,32500
    1582,25

    4-mars-13
    0,14167
    0,15833
    0,18000
    0,25333
    0,32500
    1574,25

    5-mars-13
    0,14667
    0,16667
    0,18833
    0,26167
    0,33000
    1579,75

    6-mars-13
    0,15000
    0,18000
    0,19000
    0,26600
    0,32200
    1574,00

    7-mars-13
    0,13667
    0,16500
    0,18667
    0,26833
    0,33000
    1579,50

    8-mars-13
    0,13833
    0,17667
    0,19333
    0,27000
    0,33500
    1581,75

    11-mars-13
    0,14200
    0,18200
    0,20400
    0,27600
    0,33000
    1579,00

    12-mars-13
    0,14000
    0,18000
    0,20000
    0,27000
    0,32500
    1594,00

    13-mars-13
    0,14000
    0,18400
    0,20000
    0,27200
    0,32800
    1589,25

    14-mars-13
    0,13833
    0,17667
    0,20500
    0,26167
    0,31833
    1586,00

    15-mars-13
    0,14000
    0,17667
    0,19833
    0,26333
    0,31000
    1595,50

    18-mars-13
    0,15833
    0,18167
    0,20000
    0,27000
    0,32000
    1603,75

    19-mars-13
    0,18167
    0,20167
    0,21833
    0,27667
    0,32833
    1610,75

    20-mars-13
    0,19400
    0,21400
    0,23000
    0,29200
    0,34800
    1607,50

    21-mars-13
    0,19833
    0,21667
    0,24500
    0,29667
    0,34500
    1613,75

    22-mars-13
    0,20667
    0,22667
    0,25167
    0,30333
    0,34833
    1607,75

    25-mars-13
    0,20167
    0,22667
    0,25333
    0,29833
    0,34333
    1599,25

    26-mars-13
    0,20667
    0,22833
    0,25667
    0,30000
    0,34667
    1598,00

    27-mars-13
    0,22667
    0,24167
    0,25833
    0,30833
    0,35500
    1603,00

    28-mars-13
    0,24167
    0,26333
    0,27667
    0,31333
    0,36500
    1598,25

    2-avr-13
    0,23500
    0,25833
    0,27333
    0,30833
    0,35833
    1583,50

    3-avr-13
    0,22500
    0,24333
    0,26000
    0,30667
    0,34833
    1574,75

    4-avr-13
    0,19333
    0,21167
    0,23333
    0,29000
    0,33833
    1546,50

    5-avr-13
    0,18000
    0,20333
    0,22833
    0,28333
    0,33167
    1568,00

    8-avr-13
    0,17800
    0,19800
    0,22000
    0,27600
    0,32600
    1575,00

    9-avr-13
    0,17667
    0,19333
    0,21167
    0,26833
    0,32500
    1577,25

    10-avr-13
    0,17333
    0,19333
    0,21400
    0,27167
    0,32167
    1575,00

    11-avr-13
    0,17500
    0,19167
    0,21333
    0,27000
    0,32167
    1565,00

    12-avr-13
    0,17333
    0,19000
    0,20833
    0,26833
    0,32000
    1535,50

    15-avr-13
    0,17500
    0,19500
    0,21333
    0,26167
    0,31000
    1395,00

    16-avr-13
    0,17167
    0,18833
    0,20833
    0,25167
    0,30000
    1380,00

    17-avr-13
    0,19000
    0,20200
    0,21600
    0,25200
    0,30200
    1392,00

    18-avr-13
    0,18333
    0,19667
    0,21000
    0,23833
    0,29167
    1393,75

    19-avr-13
    0,18667
    0,20333
    0,21500
    0,24833
    0,29833
    1405,50

    22-avr-13
    0,18167
    0,20000
    0,21667
    0,25167
    0,29667
    1424,50

    23-avr-13
    0,18167
    0,19667
    0,22167
    0,25167
    0,29667
    1408,00

    24-avr-13
    0,18667
    0,19667
    0,21500
    0,25167
    0,29000
    1428,50

    25-avr-13
    0,18500
    0,19667
    0,21500
    0,24833
    0,29333
    1451,00

    26-avr-13
    0,17833
    0,19500
    0,21167
    0,24333
    0,29167
    1471,50

    29-avr-13
    0,18167
    0,19833
    0,21500
    0,24500
    0,28667
    1467,50

    30-avr-13
    0,17667
    0,19000
    0,20500
    0,23000
    0,27167
    1469,00

    1-mai-13
    0,18000
    0,19500
    0,20500
    0,22833
    0,26333
    1454,75

    2-mai-13
    0,17800
    0,18600
    0,19400
    0,22400
    0,25800
    1469,25

    3-mai-13
    0,17000
    0,18500
    0,19500
    0,22500
    0,25667
    1469,25

    7-mai-13
    0,16000
    0,17167
    0,18333
    0,20500
    0,25667
    1444,25

    8-mai-13
    0,15600
    0,16600
    0,18400
    0,21000
    0,25400
    1468,00

    9-mai-13
    0,09333
    0,10000
    0,11333
    0,15500
    0,21667
    1465,50

    10-mai-13
    0,08400
    0,09600
    0,10600
    0,14800
    0,22000
    1426,50

    13-mai-13
    0,03833
    0,05833
    0,07167
    0,13167
    0,20500
    1430,75

    14-mai-13
    0,00333
    0,03167
    0,04833
    0,10333
    0,17500
    1433,75

    15-mai-13
    0,03500
    0,05667
    0,07667
    0,11833
    0,18833
    1410,00

    16-mai-13
    0,04833
    0,06833
    0,08000
    0,12333
    0,18833
    1381,00

    17-mai-13
    0,04833
    0,06500
    0,07833
    0,12167
    0,18500
    1368,75

    20-mai-13
    0,05000
    0,07167
    0,08500
    0,12667
    0,18333
    1354,75

    21-mai-13
    0,06500
    0,08167
    0,09500
    0,13167
    0,18833
    1360,75

    22-mai-13
    -0,07833
    0,06000
    0,07500
    0,08833
    0,13000
    1408,50

    23-mai-13
    0,04833
    0,06667
    0,08500
    0,13000
    0,18833
    1380,50

    24-mai-13
    0,04833
    0,06000
    0,07667
    0,12333
    0,18667
    1390,25

    28-mai-13
    0,03000
    0,04200
    0,06600
    0,12200
    0,18600
    1376,50

    29-mai-13
    0,01667
    0,03333
    0,05500
    0,11000
    0,19667
    1382,50

    30-mai-13
    0,02500
    0,04500
    0,06333
    0,11500
    0,18500
    1413,50

    31-mai-13
    0,07333
    0,08833
    0,10667
    0,14500
    0,20167
    1394,50

    3-juin-13
    0,11000
    0,12167
    0,14167
    0,17500
    0,22333
    1402,50

    4-juin-13
    0,13833
    0,15167
    0,17000
    0,19667
    0,23667
    1399,50

    5-juin-13
    0,14167
    0,15833
    0,17333
    0,19667
    0,23667
    1404,00

    6-juin-13
    0,15333
    0,16500
    0,18333
    0,21000
    0,24167
    1400,00

    7-juin-13
    0,14333
    0,15833
    0,17833
    0,20500
    0,24333
    1386,00

    10-juin-13
    0,14000
    0,15333
    0,17167
    0,21000
    0,24833
    1383,25

    11-juin-13
    0,14200
    0,15400
    0,17000
    0,20800
    0,25400
    1374,25

    12-juin-13
    0,14667
    0,16167
    0,17667
    0,20833
    0,24667
    1382,75

    13-juin-13
    0,15333
    0,17167
    0,19000
    0,21667
    0,25167
    1385,00

    14-juin-13
    0,16000
    0,17500
    0,19000
    0,21667
    0,24500
    1391,25

    17-juin-13
    0,16667
    0,18000
    0,19000
    0,21667
    0,24667
    1384,75

    18-juin-13
    0,17000
    0,18000
    0,19500
    0,22250
    0,25750
    1366,75

    19-juin-13
    0,16833
    0,17833
    0,19167
    0,21833
    0,25000
    1372,75

    20-juin-13
    0,14500
    0,15500
    0,17333
    0,20667
    0,26000
    1292,50

    21-juin-13
    0,10167
    0,11333
    0,11833
    0,16833
    0,24000
    1295,25

    24-juin-13
    0,09000
    0,09667
    0,11000
    0,16000
    0,26333
    1286,75

    25-juin-13
    0,08167
    0,09167
    0,10167
    0,15667
    0,24333
    1279,00

    26-juin-13
    0,08167
    0,08833
    0,09667
    0,14167
    0,23333
    1236,25

    27-juin-13
    0,07333
    0,08000
    0,09333
    0,13667
    0,23167
    1232,75

    28-juin-13
    0,07000
    0,07800
    0,09000
    0,12800
    0,22000
    1192,00

    1-juil-13
    0,07833
    0,08667
    0,09167
    0,13167
    0,23500
    1242,75

    2-juil-13
    0,07167
    0,07667
    0,08667
    0,12833
    0,23333
    1252,50

    3-juil-13
    0,05667
    0,06833
    0,08167
    0,13000
    0,23333
    1250,00

    4-juil-13
    0,03500
    0,05167
    0,06167
    0,11500
    0,23167
    1251,75

    5-juil-13
    0,01500
    0,03167
    0,05167
    0,09667
    0,21833
    1212,75

    8-juil-13
    -0,06500
    -0,04333
    -0,03000
    0,03500
    0,18167
    1235,25

    9-juil-13
    -0,10600
    -0,08400
    -0,07000
    -0,01000
    0,13800
    1255,50

    10-juil-13
    -0,11167
    -0,08000
    -0,05833
    -0,00167
    0,14000
    1256,00

    11-juil-13
    -0,05167
    -0,02833
    -0,01500
    0,04667
    0,15833
    1285,00

    12-juil-13
    -0,04167
    -0,02333
    -0,01333
    0,06167
    0,17000
    1279,75

    15-juil-13
    -0,05500
    -0,04000
    -0,02333
    0,06167
    0,18500
    1284,75

    16-juil-13
    -0,05667
    -0,04333
    -0,02500
    0,06333
    0,18833
    1291,50

    17-juil-13
    -0,06500
    -0,04667
    -0,03000
    0,05833
    0,17667
    1297,25

    18-juil-13
    -0,08167
    -0,06833
    -0,05500
    0,04167
    0,16000
    1283,25

    19-juil-13
    -0,07833
    -0,06500
    -0,05000
    0,03500
    0,15333
    1295,75

    22-juil-13
    -0,07833
    -0,06500
    -0,05000
    0,02500
    0,14833
    1327,00

    23-juil-13
    -0,07167
    -0,05833
    -0,04333
    0,03333
    0,15667
    1333,50

    24-juil-13
    -0,06667
    -0,04833
    -0,03500
    0,04333
    0,15500
    1335,00

    25-juil-13
    -0,06667
    -0,04833
    -0,03167
    0,04333
    0,16333
    1326,00

    26-juil-13
    -0,05333
    -0,04167
    -0,02333
    0,05000
    0,16667
    1331,00

    29-juil-13
    -0,05667
    -0,04167
    -0,02667
    0,05500
    0,17333
    1329,75

    30-juil-13
    -0,05333
    -0,04167
    -0,02833
    0,05500
    0,17667
    1324,15

    31-juil-13
    -0,04833
    -0,03333
    -0,01167
    0,06167
    0,18000
    1314,50

    1-août-13
    -0,05667
    -0,03333
    -0,01333
    0,05833
    0,18000
    1315,00

    2-août-13
    -0,06000
    -0,05167
    -0,01833
    0,05833
    0,18333
    1309,25

    5-août-13
    -0,07167
    -0,05667
    -0,04000
    0,05000
    0,17000
    1304,75

    6-août-13
    -0,08833
    -0,08000
    -0,06333
    0,02000
    0,15667
    1280,50

    7-août-13
    -0,11000
    -0,09667
    -0,08500
    0,00167
    0,13833
    1282,50

    8-août-13
    -0,12167
    -0,10000
    -0,08333
    -0,00600
    0,13333
    1298,25

    9-août-13
    -0,11500
    -0,09667
    -0,08000
    -0,00500
    0,12833
    1309,00

    12-août-13
    -0,10833
    -0,09000
    -0,07500
    -0,00167
    0,13000
    1341,00

    13-août-13
    -0,11000
    -0,09000
    -0,07250
    0,00500
    0,13250
    1328,50

    14-août-13
    -0,11000
    -0,09333
    -0,07667
    0,00167
    0,13667
    1326,50

    15-août-13
    -0,11000
    -0,09500
    -0,08000
    0,00250
    0,13750
    1329,75

    16-août-13
    -0,11167
    -0,09667
    -0,08167
    -0,00500
    0,13667
    1369,25

    19-août-13
    -0,11000
    -0,09667
    -0,08000
    -0,01000
    0,13000
    1365,00

    20-août-13
    -0,11000
    -0,09667
    -0,08833
    -0,01000
    0,13167
    1372,50

    21-août-13
    -0,10833
    -0,10333
    -0,08833
    -0,02000
    0,12333
    1363,00

    22-août-13
    -0,12167
    -0,11000
    -0,09167
    -0,01667
    0,12833
    1375,50

    23-août-13
    -0,10833
    -0,09333
    -0,07667
    -0,01000
    0,13667
    1377,50

    27-août-13
    -0,05000
    -0,04167
    -0,03167
    0,01167
    0,14167
    1419,25

    28-août-13
    -0,04833
    -0,03833
    -0,02500
    0,01333
    0,14000
    1419,50

    29-août-13
    -0,04667
    -0,03500
    -0,01500
    0,02000
    0,14833
    1407,75

    30-août-13
    -0,00667
    0,01500
    0,02500
    0,05667
    0,16667
    1394,75

    2-sept-13
    0,00167
    0,01333
    0,02500
    0,06000
    0,15833
    1392,25

    3-sept-13
    0,00833
    0,01667
    0,02833
    0,06000
    0,16833
    1399,50

    4-sept-13
    0,00000
    0,01200
    0,02400
    0,05800
    0,16667
    1390,00

    5-sept-13
    -0,01333
    0,00667
    0,01667
    0,06000
    0,16833
    1385,00

    6-sept-13
    -0,01800
    -0,00200
    0,01400
    0,05200
    0,17333
    1387,00

    9-sept-13
    -0,01500
    0,01333
    0,02500
    0,06167
    0,16167
    1390,00

    10-sept-13
    -0,00833
    0,01333
    0,03000
    0,06333
    0,16833
    1358,25

    11-sept-13
    -0,00500
    0,01500
    0,03000
    0,06400
    0,17500
    1363,75

    12-sept-13
    -0,01000
    0,01600
    0,02500
    0,06500
    0,16833
    1328,00

    13-sept-13
    0,00333
    0,02333
    0,03667
    0,07167
    0,18333
    1318,50

    16-sept-13
    0,03250
    0,04800
    0,06000
    0,08800
    0,17800
    1324,00

    17-sept-13
    0,04200
    0,05600
    0,06800
    0,09200
    0,17400
    1312,25

    18-sept-13
    0,05000
    0,05800
    0,07400
    0,09400
    0,16400
    1301,00

    19-sept-13
    0,04500
    0,05500
    0,07333
    0,09667
    0,16500
    1365,50

    20-sept-13
    0,06000
    0,07500
    0,09167
    0,11667
    0,17500
    1349,25

    23-sept-13
    0,07000
    0,08500
    0,09667
    0,12000
    0,17167
    1323,00

    24-sept-13
    0,09333
    0,10500
    0,11333
    0,13333
    0,18333
    1314,25

    25-sept-13
    0,11167
    0,11833
    0,12667
    0,15333
    0,20000
    1322,75

    26-sept-13
    0,11333
    0,12200
    0,12800
    0,14750
    0,19750
    1333,00

    27-sept-13
    0,12200
    0,12800
    0,13600
    0,15400
    0,20200
    1341,00

    30-sept-13
    0,11250
    0,12250
    0,12750
    0,14500
    0,20000
    1326,50

    1-oct-13
    0,10000
    0,10750
    0,11750
    0,13833
    0,19400
    1290,75

    2-oct-13
    0,09600
    0,10833
    0,11667
    0,13600
    0,18800
    1306,25

    3-oct-13
    0,09800
    0,10600
    0,11600
    0,13600
    0,19600
    1316,00

    4-oct-13
    0,09833
    0,10833
    0,11500
    0,13667
    0,18667
    1309,75

    7-oct-13
    0,09500
    0,10667
    0,11667
    0,13000
    0,17500
    1323,50

    8-oct-13
    0,10667
    0,11167
    0,11500
    0,13500
    0,18800
    1329,50

    9-oct-13
    0,10667
    0,11500
    0,12000
    0,13167
    0,19200
    1304,00

    10-oct-13
    0,10500
    0,11333
    0,12333
    0,13000
    0,17667
    1298,50

    11-oct-13
    0,08167
    0,09000
    0,09833
    0,12167
    0,17667
    1265,50

    14-oct-13
    0,04500
    0,06000
    0,06833
    0,09667
    0,15167
    1285,50

    15-oct-13
    0,00000
    0,01167
    0,02333
    0,06500
    0,14500
    1270,50

    16-oct-13
    -0,06000
    -0,04833
    -0,04000
    0,02500
    0,13167
    1273,50

    17-oct-13
    -0,04333
    -0,03500
    -0,01833
    0,02667
    0,12800
    1319,25

    18-oct-13
    -0,04400
    -0,03167
    -0,01500
    0,02667
    0,12833
    1316,50

    21-oct-13
    -0,04833
    -0,03333
    -0,01500
    0,02667
    0,12800
    1317,50

    22-oct-13
    -0,04167
    -0,02500
    -0,00500
    0,03333
    0,12167
    1333,00

    23-oct-13
    -0,03000
    -0,01667
    -0,00167
    0,04000
    0,12800
    1331,25

    24-oct-13
    -0,03500
    -0,02000
    -0,00400
    0,04000
    0,12500
    1344,75

    25-oct-13
    -0,04167
    -0,03000
    -0,01333
    0,04000
    0,12500
    1347,75

    28-oct-13
    -0,04000
    -0,02800
    -0,01333
    0,03833
    0,12500
    1361,00

    29-oct-13
    -0,04800
    -0,03600
    -0,02000
    0,03200
    0,11800
    1349,25

    30-oct-13
    -0,04200
    -0,03600
    -0,02200
    0,03600
    0,12000
    1354,75

    31-oct-13
    -0,04750
    -0,03500
    -0,02000
    0,03500
    0,12000
    1324,00

    1-nov-13
    -0,06000
    -0,04750
    -0,03000
    0,03250
    0,11750
    1306,75

    4-nov-13
    -0,01333
    0,00000
    0,00833
    0,04667
    0,12500
    1320,50

    5-nov-13
    -0,00167
    0,00833
    0,02000
    0,04500
    0,12667
    1307,25

    6-nov-13
    0,01833
    0,02833
    0,03667
    0,06667
    0,13500
    1319,00

    7-nov-13
    0,05000
    0,06000
    0,06833
    0,08500
    0,14667
    1307,25

    8-nov-13
    0,06500
    0,07667
    0,09167
    0,11667
    0,16000
    1285,50

    11-nov-13
    0,08000
    0,09667
    0,11333
    0,13500
    0,16167
    1282,50

    12-nov-13
    0,07333
    0,09667
    0,11833
    0,13400
    0,16200
    1281,25

    13-nov-13
    0,07000
    0,09833
    0,11833
    0,13400
    0,16600
    1272,50

    14-nov-13
    0,05333
    0,07500
    0,09500
    0,12333
    0,15833
    1286,00

    15-nov-13
    0,05667
    0,07333
    0,09333
    0,11667
    0,15333
    1287,25

    18-nov-13
    0,05167
    0,07000
    0,09167
    0,11667
    0,15167
    1283,50

    19-nov-13
    0,04500
    0,06833
    0,08833
    0,11000
    0,15167
    1275,75

    20-nov-13
    0,05000
    0,07000
    0,09333
    0,11500
    0,15333
    1257,00

    21-nov-13
    0,05333
    0,07500
    0,09333
    0,12000
    0,15167
    1240,00

    22-nov-13
    0,05667
    0,08167
    0,09667
    0,12000
    0,14500
    1246,25

    25-nov-13
    0,05833
    0,08500
    0,10167
    0,12333
    0,15000
    1243,00

    26-nov-13
    0,06667
    0,08500
    0,09500
    0,12333
    0,15667
    1247,50

    27-nov-13
    0,07000
    0,08667
    0,09833
    0,13000
    0,16000
    1245,00

    28-nov-13
    0,06833
    0,09333
    0,10333
    0,13667
    0,16000
    1245,50

    29-nov-13
    0,07167
    0,09167
    0,10500
    0,13333
    0,16333
    1253,00

    2-déc-13
    0,06667
    0,09167
    0,10500
    0,13333
    0,16333
    1229,50

    3-déc-13
    0,06000
    0,08333
    0,10000
    0,13500
    0,16500
    1217,25

    4-déc-13
    0,05833
    0,07500
    0,09500
    0,13000
    0,16500
    1227,50

    5-déc-13
    0,03500
    0,04833
    0,06000
    0,11333
    0,14833
    1222,50

    6-déc-13
    0,00667
    0,01500
    0,02833
    0,08000
    0,14500
    1233,00

    9-déc-13
    -0,02000
    -0,00333
    0,01000
    0,06167
    0,13167
    1237,00

    10-déc-13
    -0,02000
    -0,00333
    0,01000
    0,06667
    0,13333
    1266,25

    11-déc-13
    -0,01667
    -0,00167
    0,01333
    0,06333
    0,13833
    1260,75

    12-déc-13
    0,00000
    0,01667
    0,03167
    0,07333
    0,13667
    1225,25

    13-déc-13
    0,00167
    0,01833
    0,03167
    0,07400
    0,15000
    1232,00

    16-déc-13
    0,00333
    0,01833
    0,03167
    0,07667
    0,14833
    1234,75

    17-déc-13
    0,00667
    0,01833
    0,03167
    0,07833
    0,15000
    1231,75

    18-déc-13
    -0,00500
    0,01000
    0,02167
    0,07333
    0,14500
    1230,50

    19-déc-13
    -0,02000
    0,00167
    0,01667
    0,06833
    0,14333
    1196,00

    20-déc-13
    -0,01833
    0,00500
    0,01667
    0,06500
    0,15667
    1195,25

    23-déc-13
    -0,02333
    -0,00167
    0,01333
    0,06500
    0,16333
    1199,00

    24-déc-13
    -0,01833
    0,00167
    0,01500
    0,06000
    0,16500
    1199,00

    27-déc-13
    -0,01833
    0,00000
    0,01667
    0,05833
    0,16500
    1214,50

    30-déc-13
    -0,01600
    -0,00600
    0,01200
    0,06200
    0,16000
    1204,50

    31-déc-13
    -0,01833
    -0,00333
    0,01167
    0,06500
    0,16333
    1204,50

    2-janv-14
    -0,02000
    -0,00500
    0,00667
    0,06167
    0,15833
    1225,00

    3-janv-14
    -0,01667
    -0,00333
    0,01000
    0,06000
    0,15667
    1234,50

    6-janv-14
    -0,02667
    -0,00833
    0,00667
    0,05333
    0,15657
    1246,25

    7-janv-14
    -0,03500
    -0,01667
    -0,00333
    0,04667
    0,15500
    1227,50

    8-janv-14
    -0,03000
    -0,01167
    -0,00167
    0,04000
    0,15500
    1221,00

    9-janv-14
    -0,02333
    -0,00333
    0,00833
    0,05000
    0,16000
    1226,00

    10-janv-14
    -0,01500
    0,00000
    0,01333
    0,04667
    0,16000
    1244,25

    13-janv-14
    -0,01333
    0,00000
    0,01167
    0,04833
    0,15667
    1248,00

    14-janv-14
    -0,00833
    0,00167
    0,01000
    0,04667
    0,15000
    1251,50

    15-janv-14
    -0,00400
    0,00600
    0,01800
    0,05200
    0,15600
    1236,00

    16-janv-14
    0,00000
    0,01333
    0,02333
    0,05667
    0,15333
    1241,50

    17-janv-14
    0,01500
    0,02667
    0,03667
    0,06667
    0,15667
    1250,00

    20-janv-14
    0,01333
    0,02500
    0,03167
    0,06667
    0,15000
    1255,75

    21-janv-14
    0,01000
    0,02167
    0,03000
    0,06500
    0,15333
    1238,00

    22-janv-14
    0,00400
    0,01800
    0,02800
    0,06400
    0,15200
    1241,00

    23-janv-14
    0,02500
    0,03500
    0,04167
    0,09000
    0,16333
    1263,00

    24-janv-14
    0,03333
    0,04500
    0,05167
    0,09500
    0,16000
    1267,00

    27-janv-14
    0,04667
    0,05500
    0,06200
    0,09833
    0,16667
    1260,50

    28-janv-14
    0,04167
    0,05167
    0,05833
    0,10000
    0,17000
    1251,25

    29-janv-14
    0,04833
    0,06167
    0,06833
    0,10833
    0,17333
    1264,00

    30-janv-14
    0,05000
    0,06333
    0,07667
    0,10333
    0,17167
    1242,50

    31-janv-14
    0,04000
    0,05167
    0,06167
    0,09333
    0,16500
    1251,00

    3-févr-14
    0,02800
    0,03600
    0,04600
    0,08600
    0,15400
    1262,00

    4-févr-14
    -0,00400
    0,02600
    0,03600
    0,08000
    0,14600
    1250,25

    5-févr-14
    -0,01600
    0,00600
    0,02400
    0,07600
    0,14800
    1254,50

    6-févr-14
    -0,01200
    0,00000
    0,02000
    0,07400
    0,14600
    1256,50

    7-févr-14
    -0,01400
    0,00200
    0,01800
    0,07200
    0,14600
    1259,25

    10-févr-14
    -0,01400
    -0,00200
    0,01200
    0,06400
    0,14000
    1277,00

    11-févr-14
    -0,03400
    -0,02000
    -0,00400
    0,05800
    0,12600
    1282,00

    12-févr-14
    -0,04800
    -0,02600
    -0,01200
    0,04400
    0,12200
    1289,50

    13-févr-14
    -0,04600
    -0,03000
    -0,01000
    0,04400
    0,12200
    1296,00

    14-févr-14
    -0,05000
    -0,03000
    -0,01000
    0,03600
    0,11800
    1320,00

    17-févr-14
    -0,05000
    -0,03200
    -0,01000
    0,03400
    0,11600
    1327,50

    18-févr-14
    -0,05000
    -0,03400
    -0,01400
    0,03800
    0,11400
    1320,75

    19-févr-14
    -0,04800
    -0,03000
    -0,01000
    0,03400
    0,11000
    1320,50

    20-févr-14
    -0,05200
    -0,03400
    -0,01200
    0,03200
    0,11200
    1316,25

    21-févr-14
    -0,05400
    -0,03600
    -0,01000
    0,03400
    0,11200
    1323,25

    24-févr-14
    -0,05000
    -0,03400
    -0,01200
    0,03200
    0,11200
    1334,75

    25-févr-14
    -0,04600
    -0,03000
    -0,01200
    0,03400
    0,11400
    1339,00

    26-févr-14
    -0,03800
    -0,02400
    -0,00600
    0,03200
    0,11400
    1331,75

  • CPE

    Hi Koos, Great info, but a little bit of credit to Turd Ferguson at TFMetalsreport.com might be in order here…

    • In Gold We Trust

      I can assure you he wasn’t the first to do this analysis. (@TraderStef)

      • CPE

        Ok, just looked like a very similar chart and new topic here. I’m a fan of both your work and his, just trying to understand where this all began.

        • In Gold We Trust

          This analysis is nothing new for people who are familiar with GOFO. For me it was meant more as a first post on the subject.

  • CPE
  • Albert

    Very important to know is that when interest rates on gold (lease rates) are higher than the interest rate on the USD. Then gold will go up, because the interest rate on gold cannot be higher than that of the USD. You can’t debase gold as a currency. So basically, when the gold interest rate (gold lease rate) is higher than the interest rate on USD, then you’re safe to buy gold.

  • Euro-BRICS

    Seminal work on GOFO long term trend was first published some months ago:

    http://conscience-sociale.blogspot.fr/2013/10/limplosion-du-marche-comex-et-la-de.html

    (in french but you can still use google translate and read the charts)

    The “correlation” between GOFO rates and gold prices is not relevant if you do not discuss about gold basis. The best are provided by Keith Weiner analysis on http://monetary-metals.com/

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