Koos Jansen
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Koos Jansen
Posted on 23 Jun 2014 by

Chinese Gold Demand 883 Tonnes YTD

Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) vaults in week 24 accounted for 33 metric tonnes. Year to date Chinese gold demand, measured by SGE withdrawals, stands at 883 tonnes. A quick calculation (week 1 – 24  SGE withdrawals – mine – scrap) tells us that China net imported 599 tonnes year to date, annualized 1298 tonnes.

All silver futures contracts are trading in contango at the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

Meanwhile Russia added 9.3 tonnes to their official reserves in May. Chart provided by Nick Laird from sharelynx.com. In total they hold 1079 tonnes.

RussiaReservesst

In the SGE weekly withdrawals chart 2009 – 2014 year to date I added a 5 week moving average (5 WMA) trend line. Its clear the trend of the last few weeks is higher than it was in the same period in 2012.

My research indicates that SGE withdrawals equal Chinese wholesale gold demand. For more information read this.

Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals 2014 week 24

This is a screen shot from the weekly Chinese SGE trade report; the second number from the left (blue – 本周交割量) is weekly gold withdrawn from the vaults in Kg, the second number from the right (green – 累计交割量) is the total YTD.

Schermafbeelding 2014-06-23 om 09.15.38

This chart shows SGE gold premiums based on data from the SGE weekly reports (it’s the difference between the SGE gold price in yuan and the international gold price in yuan).

Shanghai Gold Exchange gold premiums

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  • Lulzasaur

    Hi Koos,

    I was wondering if you ever considered doing research into the accounting for gold. If we know the total amount of gold ever mined including yearly production; would it not be theoretically possible to work backwards and figure out how much gold each country has? From there, wouldn’t it be an elementary task to track where the gold is going and infer prices? If, after the accounting, it does not balance out, we could also infer if somebody is lying about their reserves.

    • In Gold We Trust

      the amount of above ground gold is as invisible as the hand that regulates the free market

      We can never know how much gold there is above ground. The 180,000 tonnes is BS IMVHO.

  • The_Spanish_Inquisition
  • Zhang An Ping

    There’s little value in forecasts – and I’d be happy if mine were right even 51% of the time – but there has been so much idle speculation about how last week marked the end of the Bear market, and that Silver was supposed to go to $50 within six weeks, that perhaps a little sobriety is called for, We all want the market to rise – but that in itself is no reason why it will, and to stoke expectation on the basis of a “flash-in-the-pan” rally does nobody any good, A number of commentators are going to look pretty damned silly if the price retreats, and I feel sure that one high-profile “London-based Metals Trader” is going to have the last vestiges of credibility ripped away by this

    I firmly believe that for the time being the only prices of any real significance in Gold are $1,000, $1,500 and $2,000, with everything in between being little more than noise without any discernible trend. I don’t actively follow Silver, but, frankly, that 2 year chart just looks plain ugly to me http://silverprice.org/charts/history/silver_2_year_o_usd.png
    .
    .

    In my personal opinion, however, last week’s move upwards is unlikely to prove durable, and I base this view not only on Keith Weiner’s analysis, but also on basic Fibonacci levels which defined the trading range from 26th March to 27th May; the fact that Gold has been unable to hold convincingly above the 1314-1320 level (far less extend towards the next retracement target level of 1338 – 44) to my mind indicates that the price will now probably fairly quickly return to test 1264, and that if it fails at that point, then the next-lower band will be between 1240 – 1277 (which is where we were locked during the first part of June)

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